摘要
立足于肇庆市入境旅游的发展实际,从危机事件对入境旅游的影响研究现状、肇庆市入境旅游业发展现状出发,依据自回归滑动平均模型(ARIMA),以肇庆市入境游客结构和旅游外汇收入为研究对象,分析了2002年以来3次国内危机事件对肇庆市入境旅游的影响。结果发现:一是自然灾害等危机事件对肇庆市入境旅游的影响比较大。2013年的东北洪涝和雅安地震事件对肇庆市入境旅游影响时间为2年。二是国际赛事能大大抵消危机事件对肇庆市入境旅游的影响。虽然2008年的汶川地震比2013年的雅安地震危害性更大,但是当年北京奥运会的成功举办使得肇庆市入境旅游连续5年获得突飞猛进的发展。三是公共卫生突发事件对肇庆市入境旅游的影响较大,且使得入境港澳同胞人数和旅游外汇收入的恢复时间较长。四是根据旅游安全溢出效应,危机事件的发生不可避免地影响了国内旅游城市的入境旅游。
Based on the development of inbound tourism in Zhaoqing city,the current situation of the impacts of crisis events on inbound tourism and its development status,according to the self-regression sliding average model(ARIMA),the structure of inbound tourists and foreign exchange income of tourism in the city are taken to analyze the impacts of three domestic crisis events on its inbound tourism since 2002.Results:first,the impact of natural disasters and other crisis events on the tourism is relatively large.In 2013,the flood and Ya'an earthquake in the Northeast affected the tourism for two years.Second,international events can greatly offset the impact of crisis events on the inbound tourism.Although the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 does more harm than the Ya'an earthquake in 2013,the success of the Beijing Olympic Games in that year led to the rapid development of the inbound tourism for five consecutive years.Third,public health emergencies have a great impact on the inbound tourism,and make the number of compatriots entering Hong Kong and Macao and tourism foreign exchange income recovery time longer.Fourth,according to the spillover effect of tourism security,the occurrence of crisis events inevitably affects the inbound tourism of domestic tourist cities.
作者
王小春
梁运文
WANG Xiaochun;LIANG Yunwen(School of Accounting,Guangdong Polytechnic College,Zhaoqing 526100,Guangdong,China;Business School of Guangxi University,Nanning 530000,China)
出处
《亚热带资源与环境学报》
2020年第3期65-72,共8页
Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment
基金
2017年广东省教育厅青年创新人才类项目(人文社科)“粤港澳大湾区对肇庆市旅游业的影响及对策研究”(2017WQNCX168)
肇庆市哲学社会科学2020年度规划项目“肇庆智慧旅游发展影响因素及路径研究”(20ZC-38)。
关键词
危机事件
肇庆市
入境旅游
crisis events
Zhaoqing
inbound tourism
