摘要
基于2003—2017年中俄双边投资与贸易额,借助协整检验、误差修正模型(ECM)和向量自回归模型(VAR)等方法,分析中国与俄罗斯相互投资分别对母国贸易的影响。研究结果表明:长期来看,中国对俄罗斯投资与双边贸易呈互补效应,而俄罗斯对中国投资却与双边贸易呈现替代效应;短期来看,中俄相互投资对双边贸易均不具有动态关系。中国对俄罗斯低科技含量制成品、高科技含量制成品的出口及初级制成品、资源性制成品和中等科技含量制成品的进口均与其投资之间存在着长期均衡关系;俄罗斯对中国初级制成品的出口、低科技含量制成品和中等科技含量制成品的进出口以及资源性制成品和高科技含量制成品的进口与俄罗斯在中国的投资存在着长期均衡关系。
Based on the bilateral investment and trade volume between China and Russia in the years of 2003 to 2017,the influences of bilateral investment between China and Russia on trade effects of home country are analyzed by means of co-integration test,error correction model(ECM)and vector auto-regression(VAR)model.The results show that in the long run,Chinese investment in Russia brings about trade-creating effect,which is obviously positive to bilateral trade volume,while Russian investment in China causes a substitution effect on bilateral trade.In the short term,the bilateral investment between China and Russia has no dynamic relationship with bilateral trade.There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between Chinese export of low-tech and high-tech finished products to Russia and its investment in Russia,and between the import of primary manufactured goods,resource-based manufactured goods,medium-tech manufactured goods from Russia and its investment.Russian export of primary manufactured goods to China,the import and export of low-tech and medium-tech manufactured goods,the import of resource-based manufactured goods and high-tech manufactured goods have a long-term equilibrium relationship with Russian investment in China.
作者
魏景赋
董晨晨
唐俏
WEI Jing-fu;DONG Chen-chen;TANG Qiao(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)
出处
《沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2020年第5期396-408,共13页
Journal of Shenyang University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
上海市哲学社会科学规划青年课题(2017EGL010)
上海市发展研究中心决策咨询课题(2019-GR-06)。
关键词
中俄经贸关系
投资
贸易效应
协整检验
误差修正模型
向量自回归模型
Sino-Russian economic and trade relations
investment
trade effect
co-integration test
error correction model(ECM)
vector auto-regression model(VAR)
