摘要
城市暴雨预报对防洪排涝具有重要意义。基于中尺度数值天气预报模型WRF,构建北京市暴雨模拟模型,采用13种微物理参数化方案,对2007年8月1日下午至8月2日凌晨的暴雨过程进行了模拟试验。结果表明,对该场降雨,Kessler方案模拟得到的面平均降雨量与实测值最接近;WSM5方案模拟得到的面平均降雨过程与实测过程吻合最好;累积降雨高值区域落区模拟和最大1h降雨强度模拟,Milbrandt方案表现最好;综合考虑降雨量、降雨过程、累积降雨高值区域落区范围和最大1h降雨强度指标,Milbrandt和Thompson方案表现最好。此外,相比单矩方案,采用多矩方案可能会提高对微物理过程的描述精度。研究结果对北京市暴雨预报具有一定参考意义。
Heavy rain forecast is very important to urban flood control and drainage system.Based on WRF,the numerical rainfall model of Beijing metropolitan area was established and 13 kinds of micro-physic schemes were tested to simulate the heavy rain in the evening of August 1st,2007.The results show that,the Kessler scheme performs the best in the simulation of rainfall volume,the WSM5 scheme performs the best in the distribution of rainfall process,and the Milbrandt scheme performs the best in the heavy rain landing area and the maximum hourly rainfall intensity.Taking all the factors into consideration,the Milbrandt scheme and Thompson scheme behave the best.The study could provide a reference for the heavy rain forecast in Beijing.
作者
侯爱中
胡智丹
朱冰
付静
周国良
HOU Aizhong;HU Zhidan;ZHU Bing;FU Jing;ZHOU Guoliang(Information Center(Hydrology Monitor and Forecast Center),Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100053,China)
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第5期41-48,共8页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
国家自然科学基金重大研究计划项目“城市洪涝灾害预警与全景式决策云平台”(91846203)
国家重点研发计划项目“中小河流洪水防控与应急管理关键技术研究与示范”(2018YFC1508100,2018YFC1508103)。
