摘要
目的探究传染病防控与应急优先排序评价指标体系。方法选取2017年10月-2019年10月冠县地区的传染病资料以及专家27名,通过Delphi法对传染病暴发风险进行评估和量化,并经过两轮专家评估,对指标筛选和修改,从应急及传染病常规两个方面进行评估确定。结果专家积极系数方面通过评估咨询第一轮、第二轮分别为95.34%,100.00%,权威系数区间为0.81~0.98;第一轮应急指标数一级~三级分别为4项、12项、31项,第二轮指标数一级-三级分别为4项、12项、35项,常规防控层面三级指标专家协调系数第一轮为0.34、0.15、0.25,低于第二轮0.70、0.45、0.55,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);第一轮应急层面三级指标专家协调系数为0.24、0.22、0.34,较第二轮低(0.50、0.46、0.57),差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论通过基于Delphi法的2轮专家咨询策略可对应急及常规防控指标进行评价指标和确定,有利于提供量化的传染病暴发风险的判定依据,科学性较高,结构合理,值得应用。
Objective To explore the evaluation index system of infectious disease prevention and control and emergency priority ranking.Methods The infectious disease data and 27 experts in Guanxian County from October 2017 to October 2019 were selected,and the risk of infectious disease outbreak was assessed and quantified through the Delphi method.After two rounds of expert evaluation,the indicators were screened and modified.The two aspects of emergency and infectious disease routine are evaluated and determined.Results The experts’positive coefficients were 95.34%and 100.00%in the first round and in the second round of evaluation and consultation,and the authority coefficients ranged from 0.81 to 0.98.The first-level and third-level emergency indicators in the first round were 4,12,31 items,the number of indicators in the second round are 4,12,and 35 in the first to third levels,and the expert coordination coefficients of the three indicators at the conventional prevention and control level are 0.34,0.15,0.25 in the first round,which is lower than 0.70,0.45,0.55 in the second round,the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05);the first round of emergency level three-level indicators expert coordination coefficients are 0.24,0.22,0.34,lower than the second round(0.50,0.46,0.57),the difference is statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion The two-round expert consultation strategy based on the Delphi method can evaluate and determine the emergency and conventional prevention and control indicators,which is helpful to provide a quantitative basis for determining the risk of infectious disease outbreak.It is highly scientific and has a reasonable structure and is worth applying.
作者
李文广
LI Wen-guang(Department of Disease Control,Shandong Guanxian Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Liaocheng,Shandong Province,252500 China)
出处
《中国卫生产业》
2020年第24期7-9,共3页
China Health Industry
关键词
传染病防控
应急优先排序
指标体系
Prevention and control of infectious diseases
Emergency priority
Index system
