摘要
进一步厘清刚兑的经济性质,对于控制系统性金融风险、改善金融体系的资金融通功能具有重要意义。相较于已有研究,本文基于比较经济组织的分析方法,结合中国P2P行业中的担保型刚兑现象和数据,利用Logit模型与倾向得分匹配法得到如下主要结论:第一,地区征信基础设施越完善,平台提供担保的概率越低。这有助于理解"刚兑"现象为何更多出现在欠发达金融市场中。第二,声誉水平越高平台提供担保的概率越低。这能为不同金融机构在"刚兑"上的差异性表现提供解释。第三,当平台声誉积累到某一水平后,担保措施的绩效会下降,这意味着,金融机构可能会以一种市场自发的方式"去刚兑"。本文不仅为分析"刚兑"成因及其变化趋势提供了一个更为微观的理论视角,同时还为监管部门客观看待"刚兑"的历史合理性并完善相关政策提供了实证性启示。
Further clarifying the economic nature of rigid repayment is of great importance for controlling systemic financial risks and improving the financing function of the financial system.Compared with existing studies,this paper is based on the analysis method of comparative financial organizations and combines the phenomenon and data of guaranteed rigid repayment in China’s P2 P industry.Using Logit model and propensity score matching method,we conclude that:first,the more perfect the regional credit infrastructure,the lower the probability of the platform to provide guarantee.This helps to understand why the"rigid repayment"phenomenon is more common in less developed financial markets.Second,the higher the platform reputation,the lower the probability of providing guarantee.This provides an explanation for the differences in the performance of"rigid repayment"of different financial institutions.Third,when the reputation of the platform accumulates to a certain level,the performance of the guarantee will decline,which means that financial institutions may remove"rigid repayment"in a spontaneous way.This paper not only provides a more microscopic theoretical perspective for the analysis of the causes of"rigid repayment"and its evolution trend,but also provides empirical enlightenment for the regulatory authorities to view the historical rationality of"rigid repayment"objectively and improve relevant policies.
作者
王剑锋
张超
周子彦
WANG Jian-feng;ZHANG Chao;ZHOU Zi-yan(School of Banking and Finance,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China;Business School,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210000,China)
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第10期3-17,共15页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
关键词
刚兑合约
P2P三方担保
征信基础设施
声誉
rigid repayment contract
third-party guarantee contract of P2Pfinance
credit in-frastructure
reputation
