摘要
植被覆盖是旱区生态环境状况的重要表征和直接反馈。气候变化和人类活动干扰加剧的背景下,亟需明确植被覆盖的变化状况和归因,但当前研究缺乏对各驱动因子贡献率的量化。为此,选取新疆玛纳斯河流域为研究区域,基于1982-2015年NDVI和气候数据,在分析植被时空变化格局的基础上,量化了气候变化和人类活动的贡献率。1982-2015年,流域年均NDVI值呈东高西低、北高南低的空间分布格局。34年间NDVI呈显著上升趋势(+0.60%/10 a),但存在年际变异;1995年发生突变,1982-1995年NDVI显著上升(+1.50%/10 a),而1996-2015年显著下降(-0.40%/10 a)。较1982-1995年,1996-2015年的植被变化是气候变化和人类活动共同作用的结果,其对植被变化的贡献率分别为52%和48%。采取的贡献率量化方法有效地甄别了不同因子对植被变化的影响,量化的结果表明玛纳斯河亟需采取措施进行植被管理以提升其生态环境状况。
Vegetation coverage directly represents the characteristics and changes in eco-environment in arid regions.Under the background of accelerated climate change and intensified human activities,it is thus urgent to investigate the changes and attributions of vegetation;however,the contributions of different controlling factors have rarely been quantified.Take the Manas River basin as the study area,this study analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of vegetation coverage with NDVI and climate data during the period 1982-2015,and further differentiated the contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation change.From 1982 to 2015,the spatial pattern of NDVI decreased from the east to the west and from the north to the south.During the past 34 years,the NDVI showed a significant upward trend(+0.60%/10 a),but exhibited interannual variations,and it changed abruptly in 1995.The NDVI increased/decreased significantly before\\after 1995(+1.50%/10 a and-0.40%/10 a),respectively.Compared with 1982-1995,the vegetation change in 1996-2015 was the combined effects of climate change and human activities.The contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation change were 52%and 48%,respectively.The method for contribution quantification effectively differentiated the impacts of different factors on vegetation change,and the results showed that it was urgent to implement land management to improve eco-environment in the Manas River basin.
作者
白旭阳
刘昱坤
杨武超
付金霞
李彦
李志
BAI Xuyang;LIU Yukun;YANG Wuchao;FU Jinxia;LI Yan;LI Zhi(College of Natural Resources and Environment,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100;College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering of Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052)
出处
《水土保持学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期192-197,210,共7页
Journal of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U1703124)
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41807070)。
关键词
植被覆盖
时空变化
归因分析
气候变化
人类活动
vegetation coverage
temporal and spatial variation
attribution analysis
climate change
human activities
