摘要
产业集聚与城市集群是集聚经济发展的两个不同维度的表现,当前中国城市群的产业发展也呈现出一定的集聚效应,而这对推进区域经济一体化、实现区域经济高质量发展具有重要意义。本文提出了修正的赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数(AHHI),结合Copula建模思想,构建了一种城市群产业集聚空间辐射效应的非线性测度方法;并从产业集聚与地理区位因素、经济发展水平耦合机制研究的角度,对城市群发展不同辐射路径进行了系统探讨;在此基础上,采用面板变系数模型对城市群产业集聚水平的影响因素进行了异质性分解。研究结果表明:总体上,2000年至2017年期间中国城市群的产业集聚水平存在显著的差异性,具体表现为东部沿海城市群稳步递增、东北及中西部城市群逐年下降的态势。空间辐射效应方面,一是产业集聚的非线性辐射效应呈现出较大“地域差异性”,其中,长江中游城市群的总辐射效应最强,而哈长最弱;二是产业集聚与经济发展水平高度耦合,而与地理区位的耦合效应较差。在产业集聚水平影响因素分析中,各影响因素的作用方向和强度均存在较大差异。因此,在集聚经济高质量发展的进程中,需要充分考虑产业集聚水平的分布特征与空间差异,更加重视城市群的辐射带动作用,为区域一体化的实现提供源动力。
Industrial agglomeration and urban group are different manifestations of agglomeration economic development.At present,the industrial development of urban group in China also presents certain agglomeration effect,which is of great significance for promoting regional economic integration and realizing high-quality development of regional economy.In this paper,a modified indicator HHI(AHHI)is proposed.Combining with the Copula modeling idea,a nonlinear measure method of industrial agglomeration spatial radiation effect is constructed.From the perspective of industrial agglomeration,geographical location factors and coupling mechanism of economic development level,the different radiation paths of urban agglomeration development are systematically discussed.Based on this,the variable coefficient model under panel data is used to analyze the heterogeneity decomposition of the factors affecting the industrial agglomeration level of urban group.The research results show that:Overall,there is a significant difference in the industrial agglomeration level of China’s urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2017,which shows a steady increase of urban agglomeration in the east coast,and a decline of urban agglomeration in the northeast and central and western regions.In terms of spatial radiation effect,first,the nonlinear radiation effect of industrial agglomeration presents a large "geographical difference",among which,the total radiation effect of urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze river is the strongest,while the effect of radiation from the Ha-chang urban group is the weakest.Second,industrial agglomeration and economic development level are highly coupled,while the coupling effect with geographical location is poor.In the analysis of influencing factors of industrial agglomeration level,the direction and intensity of each influencing factor show significant spatial differences.Therefore,in the process of high-quality development of agglomeration economy,it is necessary to fully consider the distribution characteristics and spatial differences of industrial agglomeration level,pay more attention to the radiating and driving role of urban agglomeration,providing source power for the realization of regional integration.
作者
刘强
陆小莉
徐生霞
LIU Qiang;LU Xiaoli;XU Sheng-xia(School of Statistics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Megaregions Sustainable Development Modelling,Beijing 100070,China)
出处
《数理统计与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第6期1073-1086,共14页
Journal of Applied Statistics and Management
基金
国家社科基金项目(20BTJ027)。
关键词
城市群
产业集聚
COPULA函数
辐射效应
空间异质性
urban group
industrial agglomeration
copula function
effect of radiation
spatial heterogeneity
