摘要
通过建立人口结构和产业结构指标体系,测度人口结构指数和产业结构指数,利用耦合协调模型分析人口结构与产业结构相互依赖性与协调性,从"二孩政策"的视角,利用面板数据模型分析"二孩政策"对人口结构与产业结构协调度的影响。结果表明:①2000—2017年我国人口结构和产业结构水平地区差异较大,北京、上海、和天津的整体水平较高,其他地区还处在偏低的水平。②2000—2017年,我国东部地区人口结构与产业结构处于中等协调阶段,中部和西部地区处于初级协调阶段,西部地区的协调程度比中部地区低。③2000—2015年东中西部耦合协调度缓慢上升,但从2016年开始有所下降,区域差异较大,2017年贵州和广西处于濒临协调状态,有20个省域属于勉强协调状态。④"二孩政策"对中国人口结构与产业结构耦合协调度的影响具有区域异质性。在全国、东部、中部和西部都产生了显著的负效应,即降低了人口结构与产业结构耦合协调度,但西部地区受到的影响最小。⑤可因地制宜调整生育政策以改善区域人口结构,注重区域人口结构与产业结构均衡发展。促进生育政策与产业政策配套衔接有利于人口结构与产业结构协调发展。同时,考虑是否实施"全面三胎政策"以提高生育率,应对人口老龄化以及人口结构的突变。
This paper measures the population structure index and industrial structure index by establishing the index system of population structure and industrial structure.The coupling coordination model is used to analyze the interdependence and coordination between population structure and industrial structure.From the perspective of"twochild policy",the panel data model is used to analyze the influence of"two-child policy"on the coordination degree between population structure and industrial structure.The results were as followed:1)From 2000 to 2017,China’s population structure and industrial structure are quite different in different regions.The overall level of Beijing,Shanghai and Tianjin is relatively high,while other regions are still at a low level.2)From 2000 to 2017,the population structure and industrial structure of eastern China were in the middle coordination stage,while the central and western China were in the primary coordination stage,and the coordination degree of western China was lower than that of central China.3)From 2000 to 2015,the coupling coordination degree of the eastern and central regions increased slowly,but declined from 2016,with large regional differences.In 2017,Guizhou and Guangxi were on the verge of coordination,and 20 provinces and regions were barely coordinated.4)The influence of"two-child policy"on the coupling coordination degree of China’s population structure and industrial structure has regional heterogeneity.In the country,east,central and West,the"two-child policy"had a significant negative effect to the coupling coordination degree,that is,it reduced the coupling coordination degree between the population structure and industrial structure,but the western region was the least affected.5)The fertility policy can be adjusted according to local conditions to improve regional population structure and pay attention to the balanced development of regional population structure and industrial structure.Promoting the matching of birth policy and industrial policy is conducive to the coordinated development of population structure and industrial structure.At the same time,it is considered whether to implement the"comprehensive three-child policy"to increase the fertility rate and cope with population aging and abrupt demographic changes.
作者
吴定玉
唐聃
张治觉
WU Dingyu;TANG Dan;ZHANG Zhijue(Hunan Key Laboratory of Macroeconomic Big Data Mining and Its Application,Changsha 410081,Hunan,China;School of Business,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,Hunan,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第10期32-40,共9页
Economic Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(14BGL058)
宏观经济大数据挖掘与应用湖南省重点实验室资助。
关键词
人口老龄化
“二孩政策”
人口结构
产业结构
耦合协调度
population aging
two-child policy
population structure
industrial structure
coupling degree
