摘要
2008年全球金融危机爆发之后,美国经济越发脱实向虚,股市稳定性极差,其走势易受重大事件牵引。2020年新冠疫情全球爆发并引发恐慌,美股暴跌,国际经济形势剧变。研判美国经济走势需引入"事件-金融-危机"连锁分析视角,而西方经济学中没有现成的理论。由此文章提出:(1)《资本论》有大量相关论述,有助于提炼形成金属货币本位下的"事件-金融-危机"连锁理论;(2)鉴于货币政策成为当今影响金融运行的重要变量,因此可以进一步制定货币政策参与下的"事件-金融-危机"连锁理论;(3)以此观察新冠疫情下金融、经济连锁运行,可以给出美国经济进入不可避免的衰退期这一基本判断和几种可能的具体轨迹;(4)中国要自觉和更好地发挥社会主义优势,防范国际金融风险,探索完善社会主义的货币、财政政策,在变局中推进"一带一路"倡议。
After the 2008 financial crisis,the United States mainly used monetary policy to stabilize the stock market,leading to an 11-year bull market so far,but the economy is extremely deflated,the economy is extremely out of the way.In 2020»the global outbreak of COVID-19 caused panic,the collapse of U.S.stocks and the international economic situation.Xi Jinping stressed to strengthen the analysis to them and developed targeted policy initiatives timely.At present,although the U.S.stock market has rebounded,the stability is very poor and its trend is very easy to be drawn by major events.The study needs to introduce the perspective of“event-finance-crisis”,which beyond the ready-made theory in the Western economic library.Fortunately,"Capital"has a lot of related discussion.We refine them and form the chain theory of“event-finance-crisis”under the metal currency standard.At the same time,considering that monetary policy has become an important variable affecting finance today,we further develop the“event-fi-nance-crisis”chain theory under the participation of monetary policy.Based on this theory,we observe the chain operation between finance and the econ-omy under the epidemic,and draw a basic judgment and several possible spe-cific trajectories for the U.S.economy to enter an inevitable recession.Chi-na should consciously exert its socialist advantages to guard against interna-tional financial risks,improve socialist monetary and fiscal policies,and pro-mote The Belt and Road initiative.
作者
刘新刚
裴振磊
石秀
Liu Xingang;Pei Zhenlei;Shi Xiu
出处
《海派经济学》
2020年第2期12-31,共20页
Journal of Economics of Shanghai School
基金
工信部党的政治建设研究中心重大课题“党的政治建设与中国特色新型工业化道路研究”(19GZY108)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
新冠疫情
全球危机
中国对策
《资本论》视角
Epidemic of COVID-19
Global Crisis
China Counter-measures
“Capital”Perspective
