摘要
经济杠杆在房地产价格与金融稳定的关系中起到不可忽视的作用。基于1997—2017年44个国家和地区的面板数据,合成金融系统性风险综合指标,构建门槛向量自回归模型,检验房地产价格对金融系统性风险的非线性影响。结果表明,房价对金融系统性风险存在门槛效应:低杠杆下,房价上涨有利于金融稳定;中杠杆下,房价上涨促进风险累积;高杠杆下,房价上涨加速金融系统性风险。并且稳健性检验结果一致。当前中国经济杠杆已处于中杠杆向高杠杆转移的区间,个别地区已经跨进高杠杆区域。由此,在当前受疫情影响经济增速下滑的阶段,应该坚守“房住不炒”的原则,不放松对房价和杠杆的调控。
Economic leverage plays an important role in the relationship between real estate prices and financial stability.Based on the panel data of 44 countries and regions from 1997 to 2017,this paper synthesizes comprehensive indicators of financial systemic risk and constructs a threshold vector auto-regressive model to test the nonlinear impact of real estate prices on financial systemic risk.The results show that housing prices have a threshold effect on financial systemic risks.Under low leverage,rising housing prices are conducive to financial stability;under medium leverage,rising housing prices promote risk accumulation;under high leverage,rising housing prices accelerate financial systemic risks.And the robustness test results are consistent.At present,China s economic leverage is in the range of shifting from medium leverage to high leverage,and some regions have stepped into the high leverage region.Therefore,at the current stage of economic slowdown affected by the epidemic,we should adhere to the principle of“housing without speculation”and do not slacken the regulation of housing prices and leverage.
作者
贾庆英
高蕊
JIA Qingying;GAO Rui(School of Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250002,China)
出处
《南京审计大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第6期69-78,共10页
Journal of Nanjing Audit University
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目(17CJL027)
山东省社会科学基金项目(17CZKJ08)
山东省高等学校青年创新人才引育计划(理论经济学研究型创新团队)。
关键词
资产价格
经济杠杆
金融系统性风险
门槛效应
房住不炒
房价调控
货币政策
金融稳定
asset price
economic leverage
financial systemic risk
threshold effect
housing without speculation
house price regulation
monetary policy
financial stability
