摘要
为获取并评估辽河口潮滩湿地生态系统健康状况,以该湿地三个时期(2015年、2017年、2019年)的调查数据集为基础,依据“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型遴选出15个评价指标,构建了辽河口潮滩湿地的生态系统健康评价体系;利用层析分析法确定各指标权重,采取模糊关系矩阵计算隶属度,进而计算综合评价指数(CEI)。研究结果表明:2015年、2017年和2019年辽河口潮滩湿地的CEI分别为0.424、0.3923和0.381,其生态系统健康分别处于“中等”“亚病态”和“亚病态”状态,保护形势严峻。依据灰色系统理论构建了辽河口潮滩湿地灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,进一步预测未来6年该潮滩湿地的生态系统健康状况。预测结果显示:2021年、2023年和2025年辽河口潮滩湿地的CEI指数分别为0.3701、0.3593、0.3489,其生态系统健康均处于“亚病态”状态,从总体趋势上来看,虽湿地生态系统压力仍较大,但其健康状况慢慢趋于好转,继续加强对辽河口潮滩湿地的修复,对今后辽河口乃至其他河口湿地生态系统恢复均具有较好的借鉴意义。
In order to obtain and evaluate the ecosystem health of the tidal-flat wetlands in LRE(Liao River Estuary),based on the field survey data(2015,2017 and 2019)in the wetlands of LRE,selected 15 evaluation indexes according to the“pressure-state-response”(PSR)concept model,and the ecosystem health evaluation system for the tidal-flat wetlands in LRE was constructed in this study.The weight of each index was determined by analytic hierarchy process method,and the degree of membership was calculated through the fuzzy relation matrix.And then the Comprehensive Evaluation Index(CEI)was acquired.The results showed that the CEI for 2015,2017 and 2019 were 0.424,0.3923 and 0.3810 respectively,and their ecosystem health was in“moderate”,“sub-morbid”and“sub-morbid”statuses,therefore the protection situation for the tidal-flat wetlands in LRE was still grim.Based on the grey system theory,we established the grey prediction model for the tidal-flat wetlands in LRE to further predict the ecosystem health of the tidal-flat wetlands in the next 6 years.The forecast results indicated that the CEI indexes in the tidal-flat wetlands of LRE were 0.3701 in 2021,0.3593 in 2023 and 0.3489 in 2025,all of which were in the“sub-morbid”status.According to the general trend,although the pressure of wetland ecosystem is still great,its health status is gradually improving,and continuing to strengthen the restoration of the tidal-flat wetlands of LRE will provide a good reference for the restoration of the wetland ecosystem in LRE and other estuaries in the future.
作者
康亚茹
许慧
张明亮
李晋
KANG Yaru;XU Hui;ZHANG Mingliang;LI Jin(School of Ocean Science and Environment, Dalian Ocean University, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, China;Panjin Yuanyanggou National Ocean Park Management Office, Panjin 124010, Liaoning, China)
出处
《水利水电技术》
北大核心
2020年第11期163-170,共8页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1407704)
国家自然科学基金项目(51879028)
大连理工大学海岸及近海工程国家重点实验室基金(LP2009)。
