摘要
目的通过分析宁夏新型冠状病毒肺炎传播力的变化,对发病变化趋势进行拟合预测,为政府更好的应对新冠肺炎疫情提供参考。方法利用R语言的“EpiEstim”估计有效再生数的变化,利用Matlab 7.0软件运行Richards模型,分别对累计确诊病例数、疑似病例数进行拟合,用决定系数和均方根误差评价模型拟合效果。结果宁夏累计报告确诊病例75例、疑似病例107例,各项防控措施的严格落实使有效再生数逐渐降低,从3.82降至1以下,提示疫情得到控制,流行即将终止。采用Richards模型分别对累计确诊病例、疑似病例进行拟合,自然增长率分别为0.16和0.23,决定系数分别为0.991和0.998。结论结合有效再生数,Richards模型能较好拟合宁夏新型冠状病毒肺炎的发病变化趋势,可用于新冠肺炎发病趋势的预测。
Objective To analyze the change in transmissibility of novel coronavirus pneumonia and predict the trend of the incidence,and to provide a reference for the government to better respond to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic.Methods The EpiEstim of R language software was used to estimate the change of effective reproduction number,and the Richards model was run by Matlab7.0 software to fit the cumulative number of confirmed cases and the number of suspected cases.The coefficient of determination and root mean squared error were used to evaluate the fitting effect of the model.Results A total of 75 confirmed cases and 107 suspected cases were reported in Ningxia.The strict implementation of various prevention and control measures gradually reduced the effective reproduction number from 3.82 to less than 1,indicating that the epidemic was under control.The Richards model was used to fit the cumulative confirmed cases and suspected cases,which revealed that the natural growth rates were 0.16 and 0.23,and the coefficients of determination were 0.991 and 0.998,respectively.Conclusion Combined with the effective reproduction number,the Richards model fitted the trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia,which can be used to predict the trend of incidence of new coronavirus pneumonia.
作者
杜建财
杨艺
赵建华
赵瑜
刘元
DU Jiancai;YANG Yi;ZHAO Jianhua;ZHAO Yu;LIU Yuan(NingXia Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750001,China;The school of Public Health and Management in Ningxia Medical University,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750001,China)
出处
《公共卫生与预防医学》
2020年第6期6-9,共4页
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
基金
基于新型冠状病毒感染的病毒性肺炎防控机制和关键技术的应用研究(2020BEG01001)。
关键词
新型冠状病毒肺炎
有效再生数
理查德模型
Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia
Effective Reproduction Number
Richards model
