摘要
以京津冀地区25个气象站点1964—2018年的逐日降水数据为基础资料,采用距平法、Mann-Kendall检验法、线性拟合及空间插值分析等方法,从多年平均降水、年内降水分配和极端降水3个尺度分析京津冀地区降水的变化特征。结果表明:(1)京津冀地区年平均降水呈不显著减小的趋势,降水变差系数为0.14~0.41。年平均降水空间上表现为“东多西少、南多北少”的特点,其中燕山山地和海河平原降水离散程度相对较高。(2)京津冀地区年内降水呈现出集中化趋势,降水主要集中在7月下旬,并呈不显著提前化趋势。降水集中度在空间上表现为由东北向西南方向逐渐减少;降水集中期在空间上呈现出由北向南逐渐增强的趋势。(3)京津冀地区极端降水在129.57~252.68 mm之间波动,约占总降水的28.6%~47.9%。极端降水与年均降水的空间分布大致相同,仅有其中7个气象站点的变化趋势稳定。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 25 meteorological stations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 1964 to 2018,we use the method of anomaly,Mann-Kendall test,linear fitting and spatial interpolation analysis to obtain precipitation from many years and precipitation during the year.And the precipitation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is analyzed in three aspects:average precipitation,annual precipitation distribution and extreme precipitation.The results show that:(1)The average annual precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration fluctuates significantly,showing no significant decrease.The space is characterized by“less east,more west,less south and less north”,and the precipitation variation coefficient is between 0.14-0.41.Yanshan Mountain and Haihe Plain have larger varying coefficients and higher dispersion.(2)The precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration shows a trend of concentration during the year.The spatial performance is characterized by a gradual decrease from the northeast to the southwest.The precipitation is mainly concentrated in the late July,and the concentration period shows a trend of not significantly premature.The space shows a trend of increasing from the north to the south.(3)The extreme precipitation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is 129.57-252.68 mm,accounting for 28.6%-47.9%of the total precipitation.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation is the same as that of annual precipitation,and only 7 meteorological stations have a stable trend.
作者
路洁
刘晶
刘明阳
曹永强
李玲慧
宁月
LU Jie;LIU Jing;LIU Mingyang;CAO Yongqiang;LI Linghui;NING Yue(School of Geographical Sciences,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China;Science and Technology Promotion Center of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《水利水运工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期23-31,共9页
Hydro-Science and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52079060,51779114)
清华大学-宁夏银川水联网数字治水联合研究院开放基金(sklhse-2020-Iow04)。
关键词
降水
多尺度
时空特征
京津冀地区
precipitation
multi-scale
space-time characteristics
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration
