摘要
财政政策的最优政策选择问题对于国家宏观调控政策的出台具有指导意义。既往的研究忽略了利用动态一般均衡的方法探求具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出与结构性减税支出的政策选择问题。本文利用引入基础设施建设支出和结构性减税的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,测算比较基建支出和结构性减税的政策福利效应。研究表明:具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出不仅可以通过提高生产效率的方式促进产出,还可以通过挤入居民消费的方式加强政策福利效应。经过测算,短期的基建支出乘数大于结构性减税的政策乘数。同时,基建支出长期平均产出乘数小于结构性减税的平均产出乘数。与结构性减税政策相比,增加基建支出对于财政资金有限的政府是短期内更加有效的产出刺激政策,但在长期中,结构性减税政策不仅具有较高的政策效应,还可以从消费、劳动、投资等角度实现结构性政策目标。进一步研究发现,地区经济发展水平的不同会导致各地区的最优政策选择存在差异性:发达地区可以通过结构性税收政策解决结构性问题的同时实现长期经济增长;而欠发达地区则更应该注重运用基础设施建设为主的支出政策以促进经济增长;但随着人口逐渐从欠发达地区流出,提高欠发达地区的基建支出是否是可行之策,还需要考虑区域协调发展等诸多因素。
The optimal choice of fiscal policy has guiding significance for the enaction of national macro-control policy.Since the tax distribution reform in 1994,local governments have gradually become the main body of infrastructure construction expenditure.For local governments,there is a trade-off between infrastructure spending and tax cuts.On the one hand,previous studies ignored the use of dynamic general equilibrium method to explore the policy choice between infrastructure construction expenditure and structural tax reduction expenditure.On the other hand,previous studies did not identify infrastructure expenditure well in the model.This paper introduces the characteristics of infrastructure construction expenditure with double externalities and structural tax reduction into the New Keynesian DSGE model to calculate and compare the policy welfare effects of infrastructure expenditure and structural tax reduction.The research shows that the expenditure of infrastructure construction with double externalities can not only promote output by improving production efficiency,but also enhance the welfare effect of policies by squeezing household consumption.It is estimated that the multiplier of infrastructure expenditure in the short term is greater than the policy multiplier of structural tax reduction expenditure.Meanwhile,the average output multiplier of infrastructure spending in the long run is smaller than the average output multiplier of structural tax cuts.Compared with the structural tax reduction policy,increasing infrastructure expenditure is a more effective output stimulus policy for the government with limited fiscal funds in the short term.For governments in desperate need of a boost to the local economy,infrastructure investment can quickly boost output.However,in the long run,the structural tax reduction policy not only has a relatively high policy effect,but also can achieve the structural policy goals of local governments from the perspective of increasing consumption level,increasing labor supply and promoting investment growth.Further research shows that different levels of regional economic development lead to differences in optimal policy choices among different regions:Developed regions can solve problems related to local consumption,labor and investment through structural tax policies,so as to achieve long-term economic growth.In view of the high consumption level in developed regions,reducing consumption tax can promote the consumption level of the high consumption group in developed regions and thus increase output.Developed regions have lower labor capital ratios,and reducing labor taxes will increase local labor supply.The higher elasticity of capital output in developed regions makes the reduction of capital tax increase the marginal output level of capital and promote the accumulation of local capital.For development regions,in order to achieve rapid economic growth,more attention should be paid to the expenditure policy based on infrastructure construction expenditure.In the case of limited distribution of fiscal funds,the tax reduction policy in developed regions can relieve the financial pressure of infrastructure expenditure in development regions.But as populations move out of development areas,increasing infrastructure may become more of a high-yielding,low-efficiency investment.Therefore,it is necessary to consider many factors such as regional coordinated development whether it is feasible to increase infrastructure expenditure in underdeveloped areas.
作者
张明源
薛宇择
Zhang Mingyuan;Xue Yuze
出处
《南方经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第12期38-54,共17页
South China Journal of Economics
关键词
基建支出
结构性减税
支出乘数
税收乘数
政策选择
Infrastructure Expenditure
Structural Tax Cuts
Expenditure Multiplier
Tax Multiplier
Policy Options
