摘要
正确识别中国居民消费的行为特征及其结构性差异,是激发居民消费潜力和扩大内需的关键。本文基于消费-储蓄生命周期模型,揭示中国居民消费平滑的行为特征及其结构差异。模型结构参数估计以及反事实模拟表明:45岁前后是中国城乡居民消费平滑行为的转折点。居民预防性储蓄动机在年轻时呈递增趋势,中年之后逐渐减弱。借贷限制显著制约年轻居民的消费,但对中年以后的消费有促进作用。与城镇居民相比,农村居民具有更强的风险厌恶,更看重当期消费。而且,农村居民的预防性储蓄动机,以及对借贷限制和收入冲击的反应都明显强于城镇居民。从消费保险角度的分析验证了结构参数分析的稳健性,城镇居民对收入冲击的保险能力明显强于农村居民。所以,完善社会保障体系是提升居民消费意愿的关键,而发展消费金融则是提升消费能力的有效途径。
With the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic,the external uncertainty of the Chinese economy has increased.As China's rapid economic growth has always been accompanied by high investment and low consumption,the expansion of domestic demand can no longer rely so heavily on investment for infrastructure construction.Therefore,promoting household consumption has become a more important means for increasing domestic demand in response to external shocks.For many years,the Chinese economy has faced two major problems:deficient household consumption and unbalanced household consumption.Therefore,identifying the behavioral characteristics and structural heterogeneity of household consumption is crucial to any plan for stimulating Chinese household consumption and expanding domestic demand.Concerning the low level of household consumption and the high rate of saving,many previous studies argue that precautionary saving is the key factor in explaining China's high rate of saving.Studies that investigate Chinese precautionary saving take two main approaches.One approach is to find proxy variables to measure income risk as a means to study the effects of such risk on consumption,and to do so on the basis of a reduced-form regression.The other approach is to derive an equation for measuring the level of precautionary saving based on the Euler equation.However,the above-mentioned studies mainly focus on empirically examining the motives for household precautionary saving instead of seeking to identify the mechanism for smoothing of household consumption over the life cycle.On the basis of a life cycle model of income risk,and with reference to data from the 2010,2012,2014,and 2016 China Family Panel Studies launched by Peking University,this paper investigates the structural heterogeneity of consumption smoothing over different stages in the life cycles of rural and urban households.First,we estimate the structural parameters by using the simulated moment method for matching actual and simulated life cycle consumption profiles.Then we perform several counterfactual simulations based on the estimated life cycle model.We study how to improve willingness for increased household consumption by analyzing the influence of precautionary savings.We also investigate how to improve the household capacity for consumption by analyzing the effects of borrowing constraints and income shocks.In addition,we examine the effects of housing costs on the smoothing of household consumption,considering that housing expenses affect motives for household precautionary saving.Last,we analyze the patterns of household consumption smoothing in relation to consumption insurance.Our findings can be summarized as follows:(1)The consumption smoothing behavior of Chinese households changes when the members are around 45 years old.The motive for precautionary saving increases in young adulthood and weakens after middle age.Borrowing constraints restrict consumption by young households,but these constraints stimulate consumption by middle-aged households.(2)The ability of urban households to smooth their life cycle consumption is much stronger than that of rural households.Rural households also have stronger risk aversion,and they pay more attention to current consumption.Furthermore,rural households have stronger motives for precautionary saving and greater reactions to both borrowing constraints and permanent income shocks.(3)Urban households with low levels of housing wealth face higher income risks,have stronger motives for precautionary saving,and are more susceptible to borrowing constraints than urban households with high levels of housing wealth.(4)The results regarding consumption insurance validate the robustness of the counterfactual simulation results.These results show that the level of consumption insurance against income shock in urban households is significantly higher than that in rural households.Unlike previous studies that examine the Chinese consumption-saving problem on the basis of life cycle models,this paper systematically analyzes the dynamic effects of precautionary motives,borrowing constraints,and income shocks.These analyses indicate ways to improve households willingness and capability for consumption.The findings also provide means for perfecting the mechanism by which higher potential for consumption can be realized.In addition,we empirically examine the behavior patterns involved in household consumption smoothing,and we do so with consideration of consumption insurance.
作者
杨继生
邹建文
YANG Jisheng;ZOU Jianwen(School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第11期121-137,共17页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773032)
华中科技大学学术前沿青年团队(2017QYTD13)
中央高校基本科研业务费(2018JYCXJJ054)的资助。
关键词
消费平滑
生命周期模型
消费保险
结构参数
Consumption Smoothing
Life Cycle Model
Consumption Insurance
Structural Parameter
