摘要
在长江三角洲区域一体化上升为国家战略背景下,论文运用核密度、重心、集中指数和偏移—分享等方法,研究2000—2018年长江三角洲人口时空演变规律,并采用定量方法探讨人口偏移增长影响因素。结果表明:①部分城市主导下的人口集散趋势转变,并未显著改变区域人口不均衡格局,且集中度呈现稳步增长态势。②基于偏移—分享法的研究发现,人口增长格局转变主要表现为部分欠发达地区人口增速加快,如三省一市上安徽省转变为正偏移增长、城市尺度上核心发达城市为主的正偏移增长向部分欠发达城市为主的正偏移增长转变、县域尺度上正偏移市辖区由核心区向边缘区的转移,但人口向少数大城市、市辖区集聚的态势显著,而多样化的人口偏移增长态势表征了未来城市发展策略的差异化需求。③经济因素、社会发展和财政水平等是长江三角洲人口偏移增长的重要驱动力,而影响因素的时空演变表明,未来人口均衡化政策的制定不仅要因地制宜,更要与时俱进。
Population distribution is an important indicator of regional development patterns.Also,regional coordinated development is closely related to the balanced distribution of the population.In the context of the regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta as a national strategy,the population distribution across the Yangtze River Delta has undergone significant changes.Using Kernal density analysis,gravity center analysis,concentration index,and shift-share analysis methods,this study examined the spatio-temporal change characteristics of the population in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2018,and explored the influencing factors as well as internal mechanisms of population growth shifts by utilizing quantitative methods.The main conclusions are as follows:1)The shift in the population distribution trend led by some cities did not significantly change the imbalanced pattern of regional population distribution,and the increase in the concentration index indicates that the regional population concentration showed a steady growth trend.2)The research based on shift-share analysis found that the shift in population growth pattern was mainly manifested in the acceleration of population growth in some underdeveloped areas.For example,Anhui Province was transformed into positive growth shift at the provincial scale.On the city scale,the positive growth shift dominated by core developed cities has changed to the positive growth shift dominated by some less developed cities.The spatial distribution of positive growth shift of municipal districts changed from the core areas to the peripheral areas.However,the population was still attracted to a few large cities and municipal districts.The diversified population growth shift trend characterizes the differentiated demands for future development strategies.3)Economic factors,social development,and financial resources were important driving forces of population growth shift in the Yangtze River Delta.However,the temporal and spatial change of influencing factors shows that the formulation of future population balancing policies not only needs to be adapted to local conditions,but also should evolve through time.This research not only provides a reference for the formulation of relevant population policies,but also enriches the empirical findings on the spatial and temporal change of population.
作者
闫东升
孙伟
王玥
徐诗瑶
YAN Dongsheng;SUN Wei;WANG Yue;XU Shiyao(Yangtze Industrial Economic Institute,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;Key Laboratory of Watershed Geography,Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,CAS,Nanjing 210008,China;Modern Management Center,Shanghai 200052,China;Anhui Business College,Wuhu 241002,Anhui,China)
出处
《地理科学进展》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第12期2068-2082,共15页
Progress in Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41871119)。
关键词
人口分布
偏移增长
偏移—分享方法
长江三角洲
population distribution
growth shift
shift-share analysis method
Yangtze River Delta
