摘要
基于社会-技术系统理论评价我国电力系统的低碳演化进程,有助于动态分析我国电力系统的发展规律,揭示其演化机理,还可以提供系统演化过程中包含的重要信息,为决策者制定电力发展策略提供理论依据。文章从宏观环境层、中观体制层和微观利基层的视角出发,融合演化熵权法和政策变权函数构建出一套综合评价指标,结合不同发展阶段的电力政策动态评价电力系统演化路径,揭示系统内生机制、外部要素及其交互作用对系统发展产生的影响效力。研究结果表明:外部环境对系统的演化作用是缓慢而稳定的,但外部环境对电力系统重大事件的鲁棒性较差,电力政策形成机制亟待构建;中观体制层具有路径锁定效应,其发展较为稳定同时对政策约束较为敏感,应注重化石能源和非化石之间的博弈关系,加强区域能源协同发展;创新利基就显得尤为活跃,它占据了多个重要指标并对系统演化产生强烈地正向影响;相反,外部环境中国际影响力和公众参与这两项指标对系统演化存在抑制效用。整体而言,评价指标框架能够较好地反映出我国电力系统演化过程中的演化特征。基于上述分析结果,文章认为在我国电力系统的低碳演化过程中,当创新技术成熟时,应适当减少政府政策干预,遵循政府主导国家的市场规则;未来要加快利基层示范工程建设,加快创新技术的认证和利基项目的监管;从低碳发展的角度出发,进一步降低国际影响、公众行为和输电端对整体电力系统演化的负向影响,提升系统的低碳演化速率,推进整体电力系统的低碳演化。本文的研究结果对我国电力系统低碳演化有较好的理论与实践借鉴意义。
Evaluation of the low-carbon evolution of China’s power system based on the theory of social technical system is helpful for the dynamic analysis of the development law of China's power system,revealing its evolution mechanism,and providing a theoretical basis for the decision makers to make power development strategies.From the perspective of landscape level,regime level and niche level,this paper constructs a set of comprehensive evaluation indexes by integrating the evolutionary entropy weight method and the policy variable weight function.We evaluate the evolution path of power system in combination with the power policy in different development stages,revealing the effect of internal vitality system,external factors and their interaction on the development of the system.The results show that the external environment is slow and stable in the evolution process,but the external environment is less robust to the major events of the power system.The formation mechanism of power policy needs to be constructed urgently.The regime level has a path-locking effect;its development is relatively stable and sensitive to policy constraints,so we should pay attention to the game relationship between fossil energy and non-fossil energy,and strengthen the coordinated development of regional energy.The niche level is particularly active,and it occupies a number of important indicators and has a strong positive impact on system evolution.On the contrary,the two indicators of international influence and public participation in the external environment have inhibitory effects on system evolution.On the whole,the evaluation index framework can better reflect the evolution characteristics of the process of China’s power system.Based on the above analysis results,this paper believes that in the process of low-carbon evolution of China’s power system,when the innovative technology is mature,we should appropriately reduce government policy intervention and follow the market rules of the government-led country.In the future,we should speed up the construction of niche demonstration projects,accelerate the certification of innovative technology and the supervision of niche projects.From the perspective of low-carbon development,we should reduce the international impact of the negative index to improve the low-carbon evolution rate of the system and promote the low-carbon evolution of the whole power system.It is hoped that the results of this paper can be used as a reference in theory and practice.
作者
聂龑
张国兴
NIE Yan;ZHANG Guo-xing(Institute of Green Finance,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China;Reform Pilot Exploration and Evaluation Collaborative Innovation Center,Xi’an Jiaotong Universitry,Xi’an Shaanxi 710049,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第11期87-97,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目“多能互补的协同运行体系及其宏观效应研究”(批准号:72034003)
国家自然科学基金“京津冀及周边地区大气污染防治政策体系的演进特征、规制效应及协同机制研究”(批准号:71874074)
教育部人文社会科学计划基金“城市间雾霾污染防治政策的规制竞争及逐顶策略研究:以‘2+26’城市群为例”(批准号:18YJC630208)
博士后科学基金“转型驱动下电力系统协同演化机理研究”(批准号:2019M663857)
中央高校基本科研业务费“能源规制视角下中国电源结构的演化特征及优化路径研究”(批准号:2020jbkyxs033)。
关键词
电力系统
低碳演化
电力政策
变权函数
路径分析
power system
low carbon evolution
power policy
variable weight function
path analysis
