摘要
针对冷口水文站控制流域开展小流域洪水预报研究。首先对研究区的数字高程模型(DEM)进行处理,并运用泰森多边形法计算子流域的面积权重;采用双超产流模式计算产流、纳什瞬时单位线法计算坡面汇流、SWAI 1进行河道洪水演算,建立双超洪水预报模型;并运用LH-OAT法分析模型参数的敏感性;针对25场不同级别的历史洪水进行模型参数的率定与验证,其模拟结果在率定期和验证期均达到了乙级预报精度,模拟效果良好。研究成果可为流域水文预报和防洪减灾提供参考,同时丰富半干旱半湿润地区洪水预报的研究经验。
In order to conduct the flood forecasting research of small watershed in the control basin of Lengkou hydrological station,this paper firstly process the digital elevation model(DEM)of the study area;calculates the area weight of the sub-basin by Thiessen polygon method,the runoff yield by the double-excess flow model,the overland flow through the Nash instantaneous unit line method and the flood in river course by SWAI 1,and establishes the double-excess flood forecasting model;analyzes the sensitivity of model parameters with LH-OAT method;and calibrates and verifies the model parameters for 25 historical floods with different flood levels.The simulation results reach grade B forecast precision in the period of calibration and verification,so the simulation effect is good.The research results can provide reliable reference for hydrological forecast,flood control and disaster reduction,and enrich the research experience of flood forecasting in semi-arid and semi-humid areas.
作者
胡鑫伟
张宇
祝雪萍
赵雪花
HU Xinwei;ZHANG Yu;ZHU Xueping;ZHAO Xuehua(College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030001,China;Liaoning Water Conservancy and Hydropower Survey and Design Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shenyang 110006,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2021年第1期26-33,共8页
Pearl River
基金
山西省自然科学基金资助项目(201901D111060)。
关键词
双超模型
洪水预报
参数敏感性分析
冷口水文站流域
double-excess model
flood forecasting
parameter sensitivity analysis
watershed of Lengkou hydrological station
