摘要
针对已有研究中以生育意愿替代生育行为、主观设置生育率等问题,文章利用ARIMA模型识别、估计、检验和预测年龄别育龄妇女生育率并做两阶段修正,预测2019—2068年"全面两孩"政策下中国人口年龄结构发展趋势。结果发现:"全面两孩"政策虽不会改变少儿抚养比震荡下降、老年抚养比快速上升的长期趋势,但有助于改善人口金字塔内部年龄结构的失衡问题,"全面两孩"政策将减缓生育旺盛期年龄段妇女规模下降速度;2028年,老年人口抚养比将高于少儿人口抚养比,抚养比剪刀型结构显现,"全面两孩"政策使剪刀型交叉点的出现时间延后4年。
In view of the issue of substitutingfertility intentionfor fertility behavior,subjectively setting fertility rate,etc.in the existing researches,this paper uses ARIMA model to identify,estimate,test and predict the age-specific fertility rate of childbearing women and makes two-stage revisions.The paper also predicts the development trend of China’s population age structure from 2019 to 2068 under the universal two-child policy.The results show that although the universal two-child policy will not change the long-term trend of a volatile decline in the child dependency ratio and a rapid increase in the elderly dependency ratio,it is conducive to improving the imbalance of the age structure within the population pyramid,and the universal two-child policy will slow down the decline in the size of women in their booming age of fertility,and that the elderly dependency ratio will be higher than the child dependency ratio in 2028,with a scissor-type structure emerging,and the universal two-child policy will delay the emergence of the scissor-type intersection by 4 years.
作者
宋琪
Song Qi(School of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China)
出处
《统计与决策》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第24期47-51,共5页
Statistics & Decision
关键词
全面两孩政策
人口规模
年龄结构
生育率两阶段修正
universal two-child policy
population size
age structure
two-stage revision of fertility
