摘要
为了全面了解钴中间产品全球贸易现状、保障资源供应、应对潜在贸易风险,本文采用复杂网络分析法,研究了2010—2018年全球钴中间产品贸易网络的时空关联关系及其演化特征。结果表明,全球钴中间产品贸易呈现稳定性和松散性特征,贸易体的平均贸易规模相对较小,贸易传输效率较高,双边贸易以及净进口为最主要的贸易模式。美国、英国、德国、比利时等少数贸易联系广泛,同时占据着贸易枢纽位置的国家具有较强的贸易控制能力;中国虽然在贸易联系和贸易规模方面位居世界前列,具有较强的贸易控制能力,但是跨越贸易限制的能力较弱。为了应对可能发生的贸易风险,中国需要采取推动供给来源多样化、适度扩大钴中间产品海外产能、实施钴中间产品资源战略储备、加大对钴中间产品资源的回收力度、建立全球钴中间产品贸易风险监测体系等措施。
In order to grasp the current situation of global cobalt intermediate products trade,to guarantee the supply of cobalt intermediate products resources and to deal with the potential trade risks.Based on the method of complex network,this paper establishes global cobalt intermediate products trade network and analyzes the temporal and spatial pattern of the international cobalt intermediate products trade network from 2010 to 2018.The results show that the characteristic of the global trade of cobalt intermediate products is stable and disperse.The average trade size of the trading body is relatively small and the trade transmission efficiency is high.Bilateral trade and net import mode are the most important trade modes.A few countries such as the United States,Britain,Germany and Belgium have extensive trade links,and they occupy the position of trade hub and have strong trade control ability.Although China ranks the forefront of the world in terms of trade links and trade scale,and has strong trade control ability,but its ability to cross trade restrictions is weak.In order to deal with the trade risks,China needs to take measures such as promoting diversification of supply sources,moderately expanding overseas capacity of cobalt intermediate products,implementing strategic reserves of cobalt intermediate products resources,increasing the recovery of cobalt intermediate products resources,and establishing a global monitoring system for cobalt intermediate products trade risks.
作者
余慧
丁颖辉
YU Hui;DING Yinghui(School of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China;Key Laboratory of Carrying Capacity Assessment for Resource and Environment,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 101149,China;Key Laboratory of Strategic Studies,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100812,China)
出处
《中国矿业》
2021年第1期40-47,共8页
China Mining Magazine
基金
河北省社科基金一般项目资助(编号:HB19TJ004)。
关键词
钴中间产品
战略性矿产
贸易关联
复杂网络
cobalt intermediate product
strategic minerals
trade correlation
complex network
