摘要
基于耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(the coupled model intercomparison program in phase 6,CMIP6)的全球气候模式模拟数据,评估分析了全球气候模式对中国主要地区1979―2014年极端气温与极端降水特征的模拟能力。通过泰勒图及各种统计参数的对比表明,全球气候模式对中国各个地区的极端降水/气温的模拟存在显著差异,对中国地区极端气温与降水模拟最好的模式是EC-Earth3。对EC-Earth3在4种未来情景下的气温/降水数据进行偏差校正,并对中国地区未来时期极端降水/气温进行了预估。结果表明:2021—2100年,中国地区升温趋势和极端降水的增加趋势显著,4种情景下的极端气温指标和极端降水指标在21世纪50年代之前是相似的,但之后变化趋势差异增加;SSP1-2.6情景下,2021—2100年升温速率和极端降水速率增加趋势较为平缓;SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.53种情景下,升温速率和极端降水增加速率随着模式和时间增加逐渐增大。
Based on the global climate models simulation data from the coupled model intercomparison program in phase 6(CMIP6),the capabilities of global climate models(GCMs)on simulating the extreme temperature and extreme precipitation in major regions of China from 1979 to 2014 are evaluated.The comparison of Taylor chart and various statistical parameters shows that there are significant differences in the simulation of extreme precipitation and temperature in major regions of China by global climate models.The best model for simulating extreme temperature and precipitation in China is EC-Earth3.Furthermore,the deviation correction of the temperature and precipitation data under the four future scenarios of EC-Earth3 is carried out,and the extreme precipitation and temperature in the future period in China are estimated.The results show that:from 2021 to2100,the increasing trend of warming and extreme precipitation in China will be significant.The extreme temperature indicators and extreme precipitation indicators under the four scenarios will be similar before the 2050s,but the differences in changes trends will increase afterwards.Under the scenario SSP1-2.6,the increasing trend of temperature and extreme precipitation from 2021 to 2100 will be relatively gentle;under the three scenarios of SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5,the rates of temperature and extreme precipitation increases will gradually increase with the increase of the number of the mode and time.
作者
向竣文
张利平
邓瑶
佘敦先
张琴
XIANG Junwen;ZHANG Liping;DENG Yao;SHE Dunxian;ZHANG Qin(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan Universily,Wuhan 430072,China;PowerChina Kunming Engineering Corporation Limited,Kunming 650041,China)
出处
《武汉大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第1期46-57,81,共13页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2016YFC0402709)。
关键词
全球气候模式
耦合模式比较计划第6阶段(CMIP6)
极端降水/气温
模拟性能
未来预估
global climate model
the coupling model intercomparison program in phase 6(CMIP6)
extreme precipitation and temperature
simulation performance
future projections
