摘要
通过构建一个较为全面的消费环境和居民当期剩余消费潜力指标体系,并以居民当期剩余消费潜力来间接衡量当期居民消费潜力释放情况。运用ARDL-ECM的动态建模方法进行实证研究,结果表明:总体消费环境改善与居民当期剩余消费潜力之间存在着长期负向均衡关系,且消费环境的改善对剩余消费潜力的影响表现为明显的滞后效应;各子消费环境对居民消费潜力的影响作用不同,消费经济环境改善对提高居民消费能力的作用更明显,消费基础设施环境的改善对刺激居民消费潜力释放的作用最大,消费制度政策环境和消费供给环境改善的刺激作用次之,而消费文化环境对居民消费潜力的影响作用仍需提升。
By building a comprehensive index system of consumption environment and residents’current consumption potential remaining,and the residents’current consumption potential remaining to indirectly measure the current consumer potential release.Applied ARDL-ECM dynamic modeling method of empirical study show that:(1)The overall consumption environment to improve the current surplus and residents long-term negative equilibrium relationship exists between the consumption potential,and the improvement of the consumption environment for the performance of surplus consumption potential has obvious hysteresis effect;(2)The consumption environment of each child has different effects on residents’consumption potential.The improvement of consumption economic environment has a more obvious effect on improving residents’consumption capacity.The improvement of consumption infrastructure environment has the greatest effect on stimulating residents’consumption potential,followed by the improvement of consumption policy environment and consumption supply environment.
作者
龙少波
张睿
LONG Shao-bo;ZHANG Rui(School of Public Affairs,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China;Center for Public Economy and Public Policy,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第1期79-89,共11页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“供给侧结构性改革下的中国大宗商品价格超调与货币政策规则研究”(2017CDJSK01XK13)
“消费环境对居民消费潜力的影响及政策调控研究”(2020CDJSK01HQ01)
国家社会科学基金一般项目“消费和产业‘双升级’协同驱动经济高质量发展的机制及政策研究”(20BJL031)。
关键词
消费环境
当期剩余消费潜力
指标体系
ARDL模型
consumption environment
current surplus consumption potential
index system
ARDL model
