摘要
采用由熵值法和均等赋权构成的组合赋权,基于发展的基本面、社会成果和生态成果三个维度,测度2004—2017年黄河流域77个地级以上城市经济高质量发展水平。进而使用Kernel密度估计和Markov链分析黄河流域上、中、下游城市的动态研究规律和特征,并对其发展趋势进行预测。研究发现:(1)黄河流域城市经济高质量发展指数密度分布曲线的中心均逐渐右移,并表现出右拖尾,其密度函数呈偏态分布,表明黄河流域城市经济高质量发展呈上升态势,但城市间具有非平衡发展特征。(2)传统Markov链分析显示,黄河流域城市经济高质量发展保持稳定的概率至少为50.2%,同时也存在马太效应。(3)空间Markov链分析表明,城市经济高质量发展水平发生转移的概率存在空间依赖性。因此通过协同推进大治理的机制创新,驱动黄河全流域经济高质量发展具有重要意义。
This paper adopts a combined empowerment consisting of entropy method and equal empowerment,based on 3 dimensions of development fundamentals,social outcomes and ecological outcomes,to measure the level of high-quality economic development of 77 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2004-2017.Then we use Kernel density estimation and Markov chains to analyze the dynamic study patterns and characteristics of cities in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,and to predict their trends.The results indicate that:the center of the density distribution curve of the index of high-quality urban economic development in the Yellow River Basin is gradually shifted to the right,and shows a right trailing,and its density function is biased distribution,indicating that the high quality of urban economic development in the Yellow River Basin shows an upward trend,but the cities have non-equilibrium development characteristics.Traditional Markov chain analysis shows that the probability of high quality urban economic development in the Yellow River Basin remains stable at least 50.2%,and there is also a Matthew effect.Spatial Markov chain analysis shows that there is a spatial dependency in the probability of a shift in the level of high-quality urban economic development.Therefore,it is of great significance to drive the high quality economic development of the whole Yellow River basin by collaboratively promoting the mechanism innovation of great governance.
作者
师博
何璐
张文明
SHI Bo;HE Lu;ZHANG Wen-ming(Center for Studies of China Western Economic Development,Northwest University,Xi'an 710127,China;School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China)
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第1期1-8,共8页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“中国经济高质量发展的机理与路径研究”(20FJLB026)。
关键词
经济发展质量
核密度估计
空间马尔科夫链
quality of economic development
Kernel density estimation
space Markov chain
