摘要
为研究长江上游"20·8"洪水期间复杂条件下关键控制站寸滩站的实时洪水预报方法、经验和预警实践模式,在无历史洪水参考的情况下,采用合成流量、马斯京根洪水演算模型加实时校正的思路,对寸滩站实时洪水预报进行模拟,并对通过洪水预警科学高效地为防汛救灾工作提供支撑的实践模式进行了探索。研究结果表明:①寸滩站实时洪水预报的主要影响因素及难点为洪水组成、逆时针绳套水位流量关系、洪峰附近突变(峰前削减、峰时延后,洪峰水位和流量错时出现)、铜锣峡壅水顶托等;②合成流量法、马斯京根法模拟的洪峰前后存在较大偏差,模型+实时校正模拟效果改善显著,主客观融合的综合预报法在存在诸多不确定因素时的预报效果相对理想;③气象水文耦合与实时洪水预报调度相结合,趋势预报与精准预报相结合,多对象、多途径、多目标会商,并以防汛专业工作人员和社会公众对防汛需求为导向,推送预警信息的洪水预警模式具有一定的可行性和参考价值。
In August2020,a big flood occurred in the Upper Changjiang River.Cuntan hydrological station is a keycontrol station in the Upper Yangtze River.This paper studies the real-time flood forecasting method,experienceand flood early-warning of Cuntan station under complex conditions during the"20·8"flood period.Cuntan flow iscalculated by resultant discharge method and Muskingum method coupling with the real-time correctionunder thecondition of without history flood reference.The practice mode of flood early warning is studied to support scientificand efficient flood control and disaster relief.The research results are as following3parts.First,the main influenc⁃ing factors and difficulties of real-time flood forecasting at Cuntan station are complex flood composition,the timesequence loop curve existing in the stage-discharge relation,abrupt change near flood peak including reduction be⁃fore flood peak,delayed peak time,staggered flood peak water level and discharge,backwater jacking by Tongluoxiagorge,etc.Second,there is a large deviation in the simulated flood peaks calculated by resultant discharge methodand Muskingum method,but the simulation effect can be improved significantly through real-time correction model.And the comprehensive forecasting method integrating subjective and objective has a accuracy result when there ex⁃ist uncertain factors.Last one,the flood warning mode,whichcombines meteorology with hydrology,real-time floodforecasting with dispatching,trend forecasting with accurate forecasting and at the same time,adopts a multi-object,multi-channel and multi-aim visual consultation system to make the flood control decision,and then,release theflood early-warning information according to the different demands of professional staff and the public for flood con⁃trol,feasible and has a useful reference value.
作者
闫龙增
张娜
汤成友
王晓凤
YAN Longzeng;ZHANG Na;TANG Chengyou;WANG Xiaofeng(Upper Changjiang River Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey,Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Chongqing400020,China)
出处
《水利水电快报》
2021年第1期1-9,16,共10页
Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information
