摘要
能源是经济运行的血脉,能源革命伴生的能源结构调整对宏观经济运行所产生的影响是值得关注的问题。本文基于计量模型和统计分析方法,定量研究了能源结构变化影响能源价格对宏观经济运行产生的效应。分析结果表明,天然气消费占全部能源消费比例每增加1%,能源价格将增加0.82%;煤炭消费占比每增加1%,能源价格将减少0.24%;技术取得进步、能源投资增长、市场化程度提高、能源效率提升有利于降低能源价格;整体上,中国能源革命不会对能源经济安全产生较大影响,能源价格上升幅度仍处于国民经济和能源消费可承受的范围内。研究针对性提出了中国能源革命进程中更好保障能源经济安全的建议:注重技术进步,深化能源市场改革,提高能源市场竞争程度,这些措施有利于减缓能源革命对能源价格的冲击作用。
Energy is the blood for economic operation.Energy structure adjustment may significantly impact the macroeconomic operation of a country.This study quantitatively estimates the effect of energy structure adjustment on energy prices and further evaluates the impact of the resulted price changes on macroeconomic operations using an econometric model and statistical methods.The results indicate that 1%increase of the proportion of natural gas consumption in the total energy consumption raises energy prices by 0.8%while 1%increase of the coal consumption ratio lowers energy prices by 0.2%.Moreover,technological progress,energy investment growth,increased marketization,and energy efficiency improvement are conducive to reducing energy prices.We conclude that China’s energy revolution is less likely to affect the security of the energy economy and the energy price rise remains within the acceptable range of national economy and energy consumption.To better ensure the security of energy economy in the process of China’s energy revolution,we propose that China should focus on technology innovation and deepen the reforms in the energy market to improve the competitiveness of the energy market.These measures are beneficial for mitigating the energy price increase pressure from energy revolution.
作者
黄维和
梅应丹
吴丽丽
梁赟玲
赵晓丽
Huang Weihe;Mei Yingdan;Wu Lili;Liang Yunling;Zhao Xiaoli(PetroChina Planning&Engineering Institute,Beijing 100083,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102249,China)
出处
《中国工程科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第1期124-132,共9页
Strategic Study of CAE
基金
中国工程院咨询项目“推进能源生产和消费革命(2035)——能源革命推动经济社会发展和生态环境保护战略研究”(2018-ZD-11)
国家自然科学基金项目(71934006,71573273)。
关键词
能源革命
能源经济安全
能源结构
能源价格
国民经济
energy revolution
security of energy economy
energy structure
energy price
national economy
