摘要
发达国家第一次人口转变、第二次人口转变均早于中国,在生育意愿研究领域积累了丰富的经验。首先是生育意愿概念、测量方法以及生育意愿特性界定上比较科学合理。其次在理论分析框架上,从生育意愿的计划行为理论,到生育意愿变动的生育周期控制理论,构建了完备的理论分析体系。三是基于理论指导,深刻分析文化规范、经济因素、职业冲突、家庭权利分配等对生育意愿的影响,避免了将一些人口学特征、家庭特征统一归为影响因素。而这些值得借鉴的研究成果恰恰为国内学者所忽略,由于国内生育意愿测量方法的不科学,也导致生育意愿对未来生育水平的预测能力大大降低。
Developed countries experienced the first and second demographic transitions earlier than China,and they have accumulated rich experience in the study of fertility intentions.First,they give rather scientific and reasonable definitions of its conception,measurement methods and attribute.Second,they establish a complete theoretical analysis system,ranging from the planning behavior theory to the fertility circle control theory.Third,guided by relevant theories,they carefully analyze the impact of cultural norms,economic factors,professions and family right distribution on fertility intentions,avoiding merely taking some demographic or family features as the influence factors.These worthy studies,however,have not been paid enough attention to by Chinese scholars.Apart from that,many Chinese scholars use some unscientific methods to measure fertility intentions,which also causes the inaccurate prediction of future fertility change through fertility intentions.
作者
丁仁船
张吕瑾
严晓雨
DING Renchuan;ZHANG Lvjin;YAN Xiaoyu(Urban Management Research Center, Anhui Jianzhu University, Hefei 230601, China)
出处
《安徽农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第1期78-87,共10页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural University:SOC.SCI.
基金
安徽省哲学社会科学规划孵化项目“城镇家庭生育意愿变动及生育决策研究”(AHSKF2018D36)
安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题“安徽省城镇家庭生育意愿变动研究”(2018CX021)。
关键词
生育意愿
国外经验
学术启示
fertility intentions
overseas experience
academic enlightenment
