摘要
2019/20年榨季糖业发展呈“产减需降、销糖放慢、进口糖增长、糖浆进口激增”特征。2020年国内食糖现货价格整体以下跌为主,呈下滑、小幅反弹后持续低位震荡;洲际交易所原糖价格大起大落,年内最大波幅达70%,呈上涨、快速下跌、大涨态势;糖农收入稳定、糖企扭亏略盈,然而糖业发展不稳。2020/21年榨季预计国际市场供给短缺350万~380万t,国内糖市“产稳需增”,然而,2020年进口糖和进口糖浆快速增加,我国进口糖和进口糖浆折糖合计为600万t,明显超过产需缺口,库存累积、糖企亏损风险加大,稳糖业产能遭遇进口冲击,进口糖和糖浆政策成为产业关注焦点。此外,糖业发展还面临甘蔗机收水平低、甜菜种子加工技术制约自育品种推广、蔗区灾害频发等问题。因此,本文针对性提出了确保食糖有序进口、完善多层次的风险管理机制、适时优化糖料区域布局等8条建议。
In 2019/20 crushing season,the development of sugar industry was characterized by“decreasing production and demand,slowing down sugar sales,increasing sugar import and surging syrup import”.In 2020,the overall domestic sugar spot price was mainly down,a decline and a small rebound after a sustained low shock.ICE raw sugar prices fluctuated wildly,with the largest fluctuation of 70%during the year,showing a rising,falling and rising trend.The income of sugar farmers was stable,and the sugar enterprises were turning a profit,but the development of the sugar industry was not stable.In 2020/21 crushing season,it was showed that the supply in the international market was shorted by 3.5~3.8 million tons,and the domestic sugar market was“stable in production and increasing in demand”.However,imported sugar and syrup increased rapidly in 2020,and the total amount of imported sugar and syrup in China was 6 million tons,significantly exceeding the gap of production and demand,causing the accumulation of inventory and the increased risk of loss of sugar enterprises.Steady sugar production capacity suffered import impact,and the policy of imported sugar and syrup became the focus of the industry.In addition,the development of sugar industry was also faced with the low level of sugarcane machine harvest,beet seed processing technology restricting the promotion of self-breeding varieties,frequent disasters in sugarcane areas,etc.Therefore,this paper put forward 8 suggestions to ensure the orderly import of sugar,improve the multi-level risk management mechanism,and optimize the regional layout of sugar at the right time.
作者
刘晓雪
刘宇轩
白晨
LIU Xiao-xue;LIU Yu-xuan;BAI Chen(School of Economics,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048;Inner Mongolia Academy of Agricultural&Animal Husbandry Sciences,Inner Mongolia,Huhhot 010031)
出处
《甘蔗糖业》
2021年第1期102-108,共7页
Sugarcane and Canesugar
基金
国家现代农业产业技术体系(糖料)建设专项资金(CARS-170601)
国际农业研究体系“食糖国际贸易形势跟踪”
北京哲学社会科学首都流通业基地(JD-YB-2020-001)。
关键词
食糖
产需形势
进口糖
进口糖浆
食糖价格
风险管理
Sugar
Situation of production and demand
Imported sugar
Import syrup
Sugar prices
Risk management
