摘要
利用市场主体信心的微观调查数据,借助仿真情景模拟下的反事实实验方法对信心能否在财政政策和货币政策调控杠杆与房价的过程中发挥作用进行实证分析,而后利用TVP-VAR模型对其内在机制展开深入探讨。研究表明,当信心被虚拟冲击抵消后,政策效果与基准结果呈现明显分化。即信心能够显著影响财政货币政策对杠杆与房价的作用效果,且经进一步实证分析得知信心正向影响于房价、负向影响于宏观杠杆。因此,政府在实施政策调控时,应注意市场预期的引导,在借助信心渠道强化房价调控政策效果的同时,也要关注信心对杠杆调控政策效果的干扰,并注意政策制定的连贯性与稳定性,以及财政货币政策的协调搭配。
Based on micro-survey data of market participants’confidence,the artical uses the counterfactual simulation to identify the role of confidence in fiscal policy transmission or in monetary policy transmission to control leverage and house prices.And then uses the TVP-VAR model to explore its internal mechanism.When the confidence is offset by the virtual shock,the policy effect is different from the benchmark result.That means the confidence can significantly affect the effect of fiscal and monetary policies on leverage and house prices.Further,confidence positively affects house prices and negatively affects leverage.The government should pay attention to the guidance of market expectations when implementing policy regulation.While strengthening the policy effect on house price regulation by means of confidence channels,the government should also pay attention to the interference of confidence on the effect of leverage regulation policies,to the consistency and stability of policy formulation,and to coordination of fiscal and monetary policies.
作者
王爱俭
倪鑫
WANG Ai-jian;NI Xin(School of Finance,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China)
出处
《经济体制改革》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第1期178-184,共7页
Reform of Economic System
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“美国逆全球化视域下我国跨境资本与宏观经济均衡研究”(17ZDA100)。
关键词
信心
财政政策
货币政策
杠杆周期
房价
confidence
fiscal policy
monetary policy
leverage
house prices
