摘要
使用协整理论对小麦(Triticum aestivum L.)生产影响因素与产出之间进行了检验,选出种子费用、化肥费用、农药费用3个投入要素作为解释变量,建立了小麦技术效率随机前沿模型,测算了中国小麦生产1998—2017年的技术效率,小麦技术效率1998年为0.2634,2017年为0.8397,呈递增趋势,平均为0.5912,说明生产管理和科技进步因素有效地促进小麦增产增收。结果表明,在同样投入下,小麦技术效率具有16.03%的增幅空间,回归模型的常数项估计值为正数并且显著,说明科技进步在小麦生产中持续发挥着作用。技术效率虽然逐年递增,但是增长后劲不足,增长幅度越来越小。最后,从种植业政策、农业科技进步、农业生产要素组合、种植技能培训4个方面提出了建议。
The cointegration theory was used to test the relationship between factors affecting wheat production and output.Thus seed cost,fertilizer cost and pesticide cost were selected as explanatory variables,the stochastic frontier model of wheat technical efficiency was established.The technical efficiency of wheat production in China from 1998 to 2017 was calculated.The technical efficiency of wheat in 1998 was 0.2634 and 0.8397 in 2017,showing an increasing trend,with an average of 0.5912.This showed that the factors of production management and scientific and technological progress effectively promoted the increase of wheat production and income.The calculation showed that under the same input,the technical efficiency of wheat had a growth space of 16.03%,and the estimated value of the constant term of the regression model was positive and significant,which showed that the progress of science and technology played a continuous role in wheat production.Although the technical efficiency increased year by year,but the growth aftereffect was in⁃sufficient,the growth scope was smaller and smaller.Finally,some suggestions are put forward from the following four aspects:Planting policy,agricultural science and technology progress,the combination of agricultural production factors and planting skill training.
作者
李中才
LI Zhong-cai(School of Management Science and Engineering,Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai 264005,Shandong,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2021年第3期149-151,共3页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70973069)
山东省社会科学规划项目(19CGLJ18)。
关键词
技术效率
小麦生产
随机前沿方法
technical efficiency
wheat production
stochastic frontier method
