摘要
欲探索出2019年男篮世界杯不同梯队的球队胜负的关键性影响因素,主要采用数理统计法对比赛的技术指标进行判别分析。研究结果显示:(1)依据本届世界杯最终成绩排名可将32支参赛队伍划分为3个梯队。(2)逐步判别分析表明:第一梯队比赛胜负的有效判别指标为:防守篮板球、助攻、罚球投篮数、失误;第二梯队比赛胜负的有效判别指标为:三分球命中率、防守篮板球、助攻;第三梯队比赛胜负的有效判别指标为:助攻、两分球命中数、犯规、盖帽。(3)经检验三个梯队比赛胜负判别函数的判别效果明显,回代检验以及交叉检验的精确度均在80%以上。研究结果可为各个国家的球队备战国际大赛提供训练参考以及战术决策依据。
In order to explore the key influencing factors of the winning and losing of different teams in the 2019 Men's Basketball World Cup,mathematical statistics are mainly used to discriminate and analyze the technical indicators of the game.The research results show:(1)According to the ranking of the final results of this World Cup,the 32 participating teams can be divided into 3 echelons.(2)The stepwise discriminant analysis shows that the effective indicators for the first echelon match are:defensive rebounds,assists,free throw shots,and turnovers;the second echelon's effective indicators for the match are:three-point shooting percentage,defensive rebounds,assists;the third-tier team's effective judgment indicators for the outcome of the game are:assists,two-pointers made,fouls,and blocks.(3)The discriminating effect of the three echelon discriminant functions is obvious after testing,and the accuracy of back-test and cross-test is above 80%.The research results can provide training reference and tactical decision-making basis for teams of various countries to prepare for international competitions.
作者
李师祁
LI Shi-qi(Graduate School of Guangzhou Sport University,Guangzhou,510500,China)
出处
《福建体育科技》
2021年第1期73-76,共4页
Fujian Sports Science and Technology
关键词
2019年男篮世界杯
不同梯队
胜负影响因素
逐步判别分析
2019 Men's Basketball World Cup
different echelons
factors influencing the outcome
stepwise discriminant analysis
