摘要
从区域宏观风险与路径事故风险的双重视角,科学评估危险品事故风险,对于危险品运输行业管理与事故应急管理具有重要价值。通过建立风险特征-风险影响因子-事故风险的分析框架,充分考虑单位面积人口数对地区事故风险的影响以及路径总长度和运输总时长对路径事故风险的影响,建立地区事故风险和路径事故风险识别方法,从危险品数量、事故风险2个维度构建危险品事故风险的多分辨率评估模型;利用电子运单数据结合空间分析方法,计算危险品的县域事故风险及路径事故风险。运用某地危险品公路运输电子运单数据进行实例评估,验证结果表明,该方法可评估多种视角下危险品事故风险,识别出高事故风险县域和路径,并具有与专项运输规划、突发事件应急预案等制度相结合的潜力。
It is significant for the management of dangerous goods transportation industry and accident emergency to scientifically evaluate accident risk of dangerous goods from dual perspectives of regional macro risk and path accident risk.An identification method of regional accident risk and path accident risk is established with fully considering impacts of population number per unit area on accident risk in a county area as well as impacts of total path length and total transport duration on path accident risk by establishing an analysis framework of risk characteristics,risk impact factors,and accident risk.Meanwhile,a multi-resolution assessment model of accident risk of dangerous goods is constructed from two dimensions of exposure and risk.By means of electronic waybill data combined with spatial analysis method,county accident risk and route accident risk of dangerous goods are calculated.Electronic waybill data of dangerous goods by highway transportation in an area is taken as a case study for evaluation.The results show that this method can assess the accident risk of dangerous goods in various perspectives and identify the counties and routes with high accident risk.In addition,it has obvious potential in combination with plans of special transportation and emergency response,etc.
作者
刘文龙
戢晓峰
LIU Wenlong;JI Xiaofeng(Faculty of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650504,China;Yunnan Modern Logistics Engineering Research Center,Kunming 650500,China)
出处
《交通信息与安全》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期17-23,30,共8页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52062024)资助。
关键词
交通安全
危险品运输事故风险
事故风险评估模型
电子运单
风险特征
traffic safety
accident risk of dangerous goods transportation
accident risk assessment model
electronic waybill
risk characteristics
