摘要
为深入分析公路三维空间线形连续性衰退对事故频数的影响,采集广东省内3条高等级公路243 km道路设计资料,共1 768条有效事故数据,利用Tobit回归模型分析三维空间路线连续性衰退对公路安全性的影响。应用微分几何空间的基本理论,提出公路线形连续性衰退表征参数,利用Tobit回归模型对数据样本中单元内总曲率差(TCD)、总挠率差(TTD)、平均曲率(AC)、平均挠率(AT),相邻单元间平均曲率差(ACD)、平均挠率差(ATD)共6个连续性衰退变量与单元路段年均事故频数进行分析,该模型能有效分析正值上大致连续分布但包含一部分以正概率取值为0的结果变量。研究分析结果表明:单元内总曲率差、相邻单元间平均曲率差对公路安全性存在显著影响,从根本上反映了公路线形连续性衰退与行车安全的密切相关性,可作为三维空间路线连续性衰退有效的表征参数;通过ANOVA分析得出单元内平均曲率在单元内总曲率差、相邻单元间平均曲率差对公路安全性无影响的路段与安全性存在显著的相关性,其主要原因为平纵曲线半径影响公路行车安全。在此基础上,有针对性地提出线形连续性衰退表征参数评价标准作为参考。研究结论可为后续三维空间条件下公路线形安全性评价、线形设计优化与改善提供参考。
In order to analyze the influence of three-dimensional alignment continuous degradation on the number of accidents in depth,the road design data of 243 km of three expressways in Guangdong Province and a total of 1 786 valid accident data were collected. The Tobit regression model was used to analyze the influence of three-dimensional spatial alignment continuous degradation on highway safety. Based on the basic theory of differential geometric space,the paper presented the parameters of highway alignment continuous degradation. Tobit regression model was used to verify the correlation between the six continuous degradation variables and the annual accident frequency of minimum unit in the data sample.The six continuous degradation variables are total curvature difference( TCD),total torsion difference( TTD),average curvature( AC),average torsion( AT) in minimum unit,average curvature difference( ACD) and average torsion difference( ATD) between adjacent minimum units. The model can effectively analyze the roughly continuous distribution of positive values but contains some result variables with the positive probability value of zero. The results show that TCD in minimum unit and ACD between adjacent minimum units have the significant influence on highway safety,which reflects the correlation between continuous degradation of highway alignment and driving safety fundamentally. TCD in minimum unit and ACD between adjacent minimum units can be used as the effective parameters to characterize the continuous degradation in three-dimensional space of highway. It is concluded that the AC in the minimum unit is significantly correlated with the highway safety when the TCD and ACD have no impact on the safety by ANOVA analysis,and the reason is the impact of the radius of the horizontal and vertical curves on highway safety. On the basis,the evaluation criteria of the characteristic parameters of alignment continuous degradation are proposed. These conclusions can provide reference for the safety evaluation,optimization and improvement of highway alignment design in three-dimensional space subsequently.
作者
王晓飞
姚江贝
丁振中
WANG Xiao-fei;YAO Jiang-bei;DING Zhen-zhong(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,Guangdong,China)
出处
《中国公路学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第1期157-166,共10页
China Journal of Highway and Transport
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51878297)
广东省自然科学基金项目(2019A1515011477)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金重点项目(2020ZYGXZR093)。
关键词
交通工程
三维线形
TOBIT回归
连续性衰退
空间曲率差
空间效应
traffic engineering
three-dimensional alignment
Tobit regression
continuous degradation
difference of curvature in space
spatial effect
