摘要
以变化环境为背景,为获得可靠的极值降雨频率计算结果,以湖南省1961~2019年22个降雨站点的年最大日降雨量序列为例,从时空尺度出发进行极值降雨频率分析。采用Hurst系数法对降雨序列进行诊断,识别出非平稳序列,通过小波分解与重构建立还原和还现模型,并分别计算不同模型下的设计降雨量,最后通过GIS空间分析来获得降雨量的空间分布规律。结果表明:由变异序列的站点分布情况可知,湖南省中北部地区对变化环境的响应较为明显;同一重现期下,湖南省年最大日降雨量现状相比于过去是增加的,设计降雨量受变化环境影响普遍增大,设计风险增加。
This paper carries out rainfall frequency analysis on spatial and temporal scale to explore the response of regional extreme-rainfall values to changing environments.In the analysis,annual maximum 1-day rainfall series in 22 gauging stations in Hunan in 1961~2019 was selected as data sources.The Hurst coefficient method was used to identify non-stationary rainfall series,then the natural and current models were respectively established by the wavelet decomposition and reconstruction methods,and rainfall design values under these two models were calculated.Afterwards,the rainfall spatial distribution was obtained by GIS spatial analysis.The results showed that there was a pronounced response of rainfall design values to changing surroundings in central and northern areas of Hunan Province.Maximum daily rainfall in the whole region demonstrated an increase trend compared to that in the past under the same return period.A general growth was presented in extreme-rainfall design values affected by changing environments,which would definitely increase the design risk.
作者
高盼星
陈振华
刘群
GAO Panxing;CHEN Zhenhua;LIU Qun(Hunan Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd,China Energy Engineering Group,Changsha 410007,China;Hunan Kechuang Electric Power Engineering Technology Co.,Ltd,Changsha 410007,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2021年第2期78-84,共7页
Yangtze River
关键词
极值降雨频率
Hurst系数
小波分析
非平稳序列
时空尺度
湖南省
extreme-rainfall frequency
Hurst coefficient
wavelet analysis
non-stationary series
spatial and temporal scale
Hunan Province
