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2013~2017年中国PM_(2.5)污染防治的健康效益评估 被引量:27

Health Impact Attributable to the Control of PM Pollution in China During 2013-2017
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摘要 为了评估中国大气环境治理带来的健康效益,确定健康风险评价的主要驱动因素,本文使用结合人群活动因子的综合暴露响应模型,对中国东部和中部地区2013~2017年可归因于PM_(2.5)的健康经济效益进行了估算,并量化了人口总量、人口老龄化、基准死亡率和PM_(2.5)暴露浓度这4个因素对健康负担的影响贡献.结果表明,2013~2017年研究区域内PM_(2.5)人口加权浓度下降了28.73%,PM_(2.5)年均暴露浓度在35μg·m^(-3)及以下的人口比例从11.23%增加到27.91%.PM_(2.5)浓度下降使得2017年归因死亡数下降了14.43%,可避免经济损失为5588.41亿元.当PM_(2.5)暴露浓度达到国家二级标准(35μg·m^(-3))、一级标准(15μg·m^(-3))和世卫组织建议标准(10μg·m^(-3))时,归因死亡人数较基准年(2017年)将减少8.22%、55.05%和79.36%,避免经济损失3190.85、21374.38和30812.97亿元.人口总量、人口老龄化、基准死亡率和PM_(2.5)暴露浓度这4个因素对健康负担的贡献分别为-2.69%、-12.38%、1.66%和14.57%,其中污染物浓度降低是减轻健康负担的主导因素.中国的大气污染治理取得了显著成效,但在高PM_(2.5)浓度和高人口密度的地区,大气污染导致的健康负担仍然很重,需要实施更加严格的空气污染控制政策. To evaluate the health benefits brought about by air environmental treatment and determine the main drivers of health risk,we calculated the health and economic benefits attributed to PM_(2.5) control in Eastern and Central China from 2013 to 2017 by combining PM_(2.5) concentrations with a human activity enhanced exposure-response model.The relative contributions of changes in four factors related to the PM_(2.5) health burden were also quantified,namely total population,population aging,baseline mortality rates,and ambient exposure.The results show that the population weighted PM_(2.5) concentration decreased by 28.73%and the proportion of the population exposed to annual PM_(2.5) concentrations lower than or equal to 35μg·m^(-3)increased from 11.23%to 27.91%across the study area during this period.Avoided deaths were decreased to 14.43%,which equates to avoided economic losses of approximately559 billion RMB.If PM_(2.5) concentration meets the Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard GradeⅡ(35μg·m^(-3))or GradeⅠ(15μg·m^(-3)),or the World Health Organization Air Quality Guidelines(AQG)standards(10μg·m^(-3)),a 8.22%,55.05%,and 79.36%reduction in the total deaths could be achieved in the base year(2017)with equivalent total economic benefits of approximately 319,2137,and 3081 billion RMB,respectively.Total population,population aging,baseline mortality rates,and PM_(2.5) concentrations contributed-2.69%,-12.38%,1.66%,and 14.57%to PM_(2.5)-related deaths.Overall,during the study period,the reduction in PM_(2.5) concentrations has been the main factor contributing to the reduction in the public health burden.China has implemented significant air pollution control measures;however,the health burden associated with high PM_(2.5) concentrations in densely populated areas is still extremely high,requiring an aggressive air pollution control strategy.
作者 张梦娇 苏方成 徐起翔 张瑞芹 魏煜 谢刘震 ZHANG Meng-jiao;SU Fang-cheng;XU Qi-xiang;ZHANG Rui-qin;WEI Yu;XIE Liu-zhen(College of Chemistry,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Research Institute of Environmental Science,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;School of Ecology and Environment,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)
出处 《环境科学》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第2期513-522,共10页 Environmental Science
基金 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0212400) 国家自然科学基金项目(51808510)。
关键词 PM_(2.5) 健康风险评估 驱动因素 暴露因子 大气污染防治行动计划 PM_(2.5) health risk assessment driving factor exposure factor air pollution prevention and control action plan
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