摘要
冷战结束后,一些国家的外交行为逐渐摆脱传统的制衡—追随模式。结构压力和国家能力是影响相关国家对冲战略的主要变量,对冲形态和强度也随之变化而改变。基于对冲轨迹变化、意识形态差异及与中美关系的变化,在东盟国家中,菲律宾、马来西亚和老挝的对冲战略代表三种不同模式。中美竞争态势的加剧、疫情的全球性蔓延、国际环境不稳定性上升进一步刺激了这些国家的对冲战略选择。为获得更多的发展空间,三国根据各自国家能力不同和所受不同的结构性压力,分别走上从对冲转为追随、稳定对冲和由追随转为对冲的道路。
In the post-Cold War era,the diplomatic behavior of some countries can no longer be characterized by the traditional mode of"checks and balances"and"following big powers."Structural pressure and national resources are the main variables that influence a country’s hedging strategy and its form and intensity.This article suggests that the hedging strategies of the Philippines,Malaysia,and Laos represent three different models among ASEAN,based on the changes of their hedging trajectories,ideological differences,and the changes in their relations with China and the United States.The intensification of China-U.S.competition,the global spread of COVID-19,and the rising instability of the international environment further stimulate these countries\choices of hedging strategies.According to their different capacities and different structural pressures,the three countries have adopted three different hedging strategies,respectively-from hedging to following,stable hedging,and from following to hedging。
出处
《国际政治研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第6期105-126,7,M0003,共24页
The Journal of International Studies
