摘要
滑坡灾害受灾体空间受灾概率是指一定灾害强度下某一受灾体在某一空间位置的受灾概率,以滑体运动模型为基础,提出将滑动摩擦系数视为随机变量,通过蒙特卡洛法计算受灾体空间受灾概率,在此基础上将滑坡风险评估归纳为3种评价模式,并采用C#开发了相应的计算软件系统,实现了从坡体稳定到滑动冲击过程的全程概率分析计算。采用提出的计算模式结合工程实例进行了详细的计算和分析,结果表明考虑受灾体空间受灾概率的风险指标是一种符合工程经验和滑坡可靠度理论规律的滑坡风险定量指标,该指标比以往采用的确定性的影响范围评价模式的指标更为科学合理,而自主开发的软件系统可以实现单个受灾对象的空间受灾概率的计算,以及实现了大量空间数据的分析计算和图形化显示,为提高滑坡灾害风险定量评估程度提供了一种有效途径。
The impact probability of element at landslide risk refers to the impact probability of a element at risk in a certain spatial position under a certain disaster intensity. For this,on the basis of the sliding body motion model,put forward the sliding friction coefficient as a random variable,to calculate the impact probability by the Monte Carlo method,and then landslide risk assessment summarized as three kinds of evaluation model,and the corresponding calculation software system,using C~# software programming achieved from the slope stability to the sliding probability analysis and calculation in the whole process of the impact process. Conclusion is obtained by using an real case,the results show that considering the impact probability of element at risk is conform to engineering experience and the rule of the landslide reliability theory,the indicators which use impact probability is more scientific and reasonable than other indicators,just need to calculate the impact probability of each element at landslide risk,and will increase a large amount of calculation work,but the software system can realize the massive spatial data analysis and graphical display,will improve the quantitative degree of landslide risk assessment.
作者
吴越
向灵均
吴同情
王晓磊
王丙龙
WU Yue;XIANG Lingjun;WU Tongqing;WANG Xiaolei;WANG Binglong(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Chongqing Unversity of Sicience and Technology,Chongqing 401331,China;Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards Mitigation for Mountainous Highway and Waterway,Chongqing Municipal Education Commission,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Energy Engineering Mechanics and Disaster Prevention an Mitigation,Chongqing 401331,China;Southeast Sichuan Geological Brigade,Chongqing Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources,Chongqing 400038,China)
出处
《岩石力学与工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第S02期3464-3474,共11页
Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering
基金
重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0228)
重庆市民生保障项目(cstc2017shmsA00009)
重庆交通大学山区公路水运交通地质减灾重庆市高校市级重点实验室开放基金(kfm2018–007)。
关键词
边坡工程
滑坡灾害
风险评估
空间受灾概率
滑坡财产风险评估
slope engineering
landslide hazard
risk assessment
spatial disaster probability
landslide property risk assessment
