摘要
为控制传染病在机动车内的传播,利用传染病传播模型,研究车内传染病的传播机制和影响因素。基于传染病动力学理论,结合机动车(以公交车和小型私家车为例)的行驶特点和传播环境,针对新冠病毒(COVID-19)的传播方式,在引入病毒传播密度概念的基础上,建立公交车和小型私家车内的传染病SIR传播模型,完成不同行驶条件下的车内传播模型数值模拟仿真分析。研究结果表明:在疫情防控期间,缩短行车时间、减少车内人员交换频率、加强车内的通风和消毒、根据防控大环境适当选择公交车和私家车出行均可以对车内病毒的传播起到抑制作用。
In order to control spread of infectious diseases in motor vehicles,their transmission mechanism and influencing factors were studied by using infectious disease transmission model.Based on theory of infectious disease dynamics and by introducing concept of virus transmission density,SIR model of infectious diseases in buses and small private cars was established considering transmission mode of COVID-19 and driving characteristics and transmission environment of motor vehicles.Then,the model under different driving conditions were studied through numerical simulation analysis and comparison.The results show that virus transmission in cars can be suppressed during outbreak of epidemic by adopting strategies,like reducing driving time and people exchange frequency,enforcing ventilation and disinfection,and making appropriate choices for bus and private car travel according to preventative and control environment.
作者
郭云龙
GUO Yunlong(Police Order Administration Department,Liaoning Police College,Dalian Liaoning 116036,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第1期173-178,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
辽宁省教育厅科研经费项目(JYT2020WQ01)
博士科研启动资金资助项目(2020LNPCBS-202)
大连市社科联社科课题项目(2020dlskyb110)
辽宁省高等学校创新团队支持计划项目(辽教函[2018]479号)。
关键词
传染病传播
SIR模型
机动车
公交车
小型私家车
新冠病毒(COVID-19)
transmission of infectious diseases
susceptible infected recovered(SIR)model
motor vehicles
buses
small private cars
corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)
