摘要
通过梳理电力物资需求预测中存在的真实需求和计划需求、物资出库量和真实需求的不一致,以及电力物资需求的内外部影响问题,提出基于影响因素多维融合与贝叶斯概率更新的电力物资需求预测方法。首先分析了电力物资需求的内外部影响因素及其筛选,并按其对需求预测的影响程度进行权重赋值;其次设计了影响因素多维融合与贝叶斯概率更新的电力物资需求预测框架,介绍了贝叶斯概率更新的需求预测流程步骤;最后以温州市10kv配网项目的电力电缆需求预测为例进行算例说明。应用算例表明该方法能有效反映需求因素对电力物资需求变动的影响,符合电力物资需求特性,且具有很强的拓展性。
By sorting out the discrepancy among the actual demand,the planned demand,and the outbound delivery quantity,as well as the internal and external influences of the electric power materials demand,we put forward a demand forecasting method for electric power materials based on the influencing factors multi-dimensional integration and Bayesian probability updating.Firstly,we analyzed and selected the internal and external influencing factors of the electric power materials demand,and carried out the weight assignment according to their influence degree on the demand forecasting.Secondly,we designed the power materials demand forecasting framework based on the influencing factors multi-dimensional integration and Bayesian probability updating,and introduced the relevant forecasting procedures.Finally,we took the power cable demand forecasting of Wenzhou 10kV distribution network project as an example to illustrate the calculation,which shows that the proposed method can effectively reflect the influence of the demand factors on the change of the electric power materials demand,is in line with the demand characteristics of electric power materials,and has strong extensibility.
作者
李明
郑逸林
高瞻
陈达强
詹沙磊
LI Ming;ZHENG Yilin;GAO Zhan;CHEN Daqiang;ZHAN Shalei(Department of Materials,SGCC Zhejiang Electric Power Company,Hangzhou 310007;Jiangshan Company of SGCC Zhejiang Electric Power Company,Jiangshan 324199;School of Management&E-business,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou 310018,China)
出处
《物流技术》
2021年第3期71-76,共6页
Logistics Technology
基金
国家电网浙江省电力公司管理咨询项目“电网现代物流体系战略研究”(SGZJ0000WZWT1900442)。
关键词
多维融合
贝叶斯更新
影响因素
电力物资需求
需求预测
multi-dimensional integration
Bayesian updating
influence factor
electric power material demand
demand forecasting
