摘要
黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展已成为重大国家战略,流域内的经济增长、产业发展与生态环境协同发展问题正逐渐成为研究热点。文章分析了黄河流域经济增长、产业发展与生态环境三者的耦合协同机理。在此基础上构建耦合协同综合评价指标体系,运用耦合协调度模型、空间自相关模型、灰色关联模型分析了2012—2018年黄河流域62个地级市经济增长、产业发展与生态环境各系统的综合水平及三者耦合协调度的时空差异及其驱动因素。运用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测了短期内三者耦合协调度的变化趋势。研究表明:①黄河流域经济增长、产业发展与生态环境各系统综合水平总体上呈现平稳态势,三者发展速度差异不明显,但耦合协同严重失调,黄河流域整体尚未达到三者协同发展状态。②黄河流域经济增长、产业发展与生态环境三者的耦合协调度呈现出显著的空间自相关性,全局空间自相关为正,局部空间自相关呈现出聚集趋同特征。③预测结果表明黄河流域经济增长、产业发展与生态环境三者的耦合协同发展在短期内保持平稳。在预测期内黄河流域经济增长、产业发展与生态环境仍未达到协同发展状态,部分地区的耦合协调度有所提高,但总体提升与演进的速度较缓慢。最后,基于黄河流域经济发展与生态环境保护分析,为黄河流域经济增长、产业发展与生态环境耦合协同构建了包含组织保障、空间治理、政策保障以及体制机制等支撑体系,以期为实现黄河流域高质量发展奠定科学决策基础。
Ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin has become a major national strategy,and the coupling coordination of economic growth,industrial development and ecology in this area is becoming a research hot spot.This paper analyzed the coupling coordination mechanism of economic growth,industrial development and ecology in the Yellow River Basin and constructed an evaluation index system of coupling coordination degree.Using the coupling coordination model,the spatial auto-correlation model and grey relational model,this paper analyzed the space differences and time differences of the coupling coordination degree of 62 cities in the Yellow River Basin and their driving factors from 2012 to 2018.And the GM(1,1)gray prediction method was used to predict the coupling coordination degree in the short term.The results showed that:①The overall level of economic growth,industrial development and ecology in the Yellow River Basin had shown a steady trend,and there were no significant differences in the speed of development.However,the coupling coordination of them was seriously out of coordination,and the coupling coordination of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin had not yet reached a coordinated level.②The coupling coordination degree demonstrated significant global and local spatial auto-correlation features.The global spatial auto-correlation was positive and the convergence features were obvious.③The forecast results showed that the coupling coordination degree remained generally stable and coordination had not been reached during the forecast period in this area.The rate of improvement was relatively slow.Finally,a support system incorporating organizational guarantee,spatial governance,policy guarantee and institutional mechanism was established for economic growth and ecological protection in the Yellow River Basin.It is expected that this paper can provide a theoretical basis and lay a certain scientific decision-making foundation for the ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.
作者
任保平
杜宇翔
REN Baoping;DU Yuxiang(Western Economic Development Research Institute,Northwest University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710127,China;School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710127,China)
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期119-129,共11页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“新时代中国高质量发展的道路研究”(批准号:19FJLB011)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“丝绸之路经济带建设背景下西部沿线省区与城市的经济发展绩效评价”(批准号:18VXK002)。
关键词
黄河流域
高质量发展
耦合协同
Yellow River Basin
high-quality development
coupling coordination
