摘要
本文以船舶风险评估问题为背景,通过结合直觉语言变量、云模型和前景理论来构建风险型评价模型。首先,采用直觉语言变量表征决策者的主观评估信息;其次,利用云模型生成方法将直觉语言变量转化为直觉正态云,从定性与定量相结合的角度反映决策者的主观不确定性;此外,定义直觉正态云的距离和可能度公式,将其嵌入前景理论构建前景值矩阵;最后,结合熵权法得出各方案的综合前景值,按照综合风险水平对方案排序,进而达到规避风险的目的。本文以某船舶保险机构正在进行风险评估的5艘船为研究对象,利用所构建的决策模型对其进行风险分析与讨论,验证了决策模型的有效性与实用性。
For dealing with the problem of ship risk assessment,this paper designs a risk-based decision-making model by combining intuitionistic linguistic terms,cloud model and prospect theory.Firstly,intuitionistic linguisitic variables are used to represent the subjective evaluation information of decision makers;Secondly,the intuitionistic linguistic variable is transformed into intuitionistic normal cloud by using the generation method of cloud model,so as to reflect the subjective uncertainty of decision-makers from the perspective of combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis;In addition,by introducing the distance measure and probability measure of the intuitionistic normal cloud,the prospect value matrix of alternatives is calculated.Finally,comprehensive prospect values are obtained with the aid of entropy weight,by which the approach of alternatives ranking is offered,and the alternative with the low risk is identified for risk avoidance purposes.This study,taking 5 ships during the process of risk assessment implemented by a ship insurance institution as the research object,examines and discusses their risk situation by using the designed decision making model,as well as the effectiveness and practicability.
作者
高苏
王利东
王昕
GAO Su;WANG Li-dong;WANG Xin(School of Science,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)
出处
《模糊系统与数学》
北大核心
2021年第1期155-162,共8页
Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(61803065)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项(3132019357)。
关键词
风险评估
云模型
前景理论
直觉模糊集
熵权法
Risk Assessment
Cloud Model
Prospect Theory
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets
Entropy Weight
