摘要
基于重大自然灾害对称性理论,提出"时间韵律体"概念,运用蝴蝶结构图、平面结构系、立体结构系量化帕米尔高原M_(W)≥6.6级地震时间韵律特征并进行趋势判断,结合太阳活动、地球自转进行时间韵律相关性分析。结果表明:(1)帕米尔高原M_(w)≥6.6级地震具有时间韵律特征。以18 a为主周期韵律,构建七棱柱立体结构系,在三维空间"体"中反映地震活动时间对称规律。(2)帕米尔高原M_(W)≥6.6级地震具有可公度性。2020年和2026年发震信号较强,其中2026年发震置信水平为99.5%,不漏报水平为60.0%。(3)帕米尔高原M_(W)≥6.6级地震与太阳黑子、地球自转速度存在韵律关系,即强震多发生在太阳活动的下降段、谷值年,以及地球自转速度的减速段。
Based on the commensurability theory,the concept of time metrical space is proposed.Butterfly structure diagram,plane structure system and three-dimensional structure system are used to quantify the time metrical characteristics of earthquakes with M_(W)≥6.6 in Pamirs Plateau,and the correlation is analyzed in combination with sunspots and earth rotation speed.The results show that:Earthquakes with M_(W)≥6.6 in Pamirs plateau have obvious time metrical characteristics.The time metrical space is constructed by the cubic structure of seven prisms reflects the time symmetry law of seismic activity in the three-dimensional space‘body’,with 18 a as the main period.Earthquakes with M_(W)≥6.6 in Pamirs plateau have good commensurability.The earthquake signals occurred in 2020 and 2026 are relatively strong,of which the random probability of earthquake occurrence in 2026 is 0.005,the significance level is 99.5%,and the level of non-missing report is 60%.The earthquakes with M_(W)≥6.6 in Pamirs Plateau have a good metrical relationship with sunspots and the rotation speed of the earth.Earthquakes occur mostly in the descending and valley periods of sunspot activity,and more frequently in the deceleration period of the earth’s rotation speed.
作者
王婷
延军平
李双双
万佳
张玉凤
WANG Ting;YAN Junping;LI Shuangshuang;WAN Jia;ZHANG Yufeng(School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,China)
出处
《高原地震》
2020年第4期6-16,共11页
Plateau Earthquake Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“中国西部地震灾害时空对称结构精细化对接研究”(项目编号:41877519)资助。
关键词
时间韵律体
地震
可公度
帕米尔高原
Time metrical space
Earthquake
Commensurability
Pamirs Plateau
