摘要
目的分析1989—2019年南京市病毒性肝炎流行趋势,并预测2020年发病情况,为南京市病毒性肝炎防控提供依据。方法通过南京市疾病预防控制中心疫情档案和国家传染病报告信息管理系统收集1989—2019年南京市病毒性肝炎发病资料,采用年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析病毒性肝炎发病率变化趋势,采用季节指数分析不同型别病毒性肝炎发病的季节性;采用差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)预测2020年南京市病毒性肝炎发病率。结果1989—2019年南京市病毒性肝炎年均发病率为62.00/10万,发病率整体呈下降趋势(P<0.05),AAPC为-8.42%。1998—2019年甲、乙、丙、戊型病毒性肝炎年发病率分别为1.98/10万、14.31/10万、2.30/10万和2.60/10万;甲、乙型病毒性肝炎发病率均呈下降趋势(P<0.05),AAPC分别为-11.81%和-6.02%;丙型病毒性肝炎发病率无明显变化趋势(P>0.05);戊型病毒性肝炎发病率呈上升趋势(P<0.05),AAPC为4.82%。2015—2019年第三、四季度为甲、乙、丙型病毒性肝炎的流行季节,第一、二季度为戊型病毒性肝炎的流行季节。ARIMA模型预测2020年1—12月南京市病毒性肝炎发病率为1.26/10万~3.69/10万;乙型病毒性肝炎发病率为1.21/10万~2.58/10万,丙型病毒性肝炎为0.20/10万~0.48/10万,戊型病毒性肝炎为0.09/10万~0.25/10万。结论1989—2019年南京市病毒性肝炎发病率呈下降趋势,乙型病毒性肝炎发病率较高,各型病毒性肝炎发病均具有季节性;预测2020年1—12月病毒性肝炎发病率为1.26/10万~3.69/10万。
Objective To analyze the epidemic trend of viral hepatitis in Nanjing from 1989 to 2019 and predict the incidence in 2020,so as to provide reference for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis.Methods The incidence data of viral hepatitis in Nanjing from 1989 to 2019 was retrieved from Nanjng Center for Disease Control and Prevention and National Infectious Disease Reporting System.The epidemic trend was analyzed by estimating the annual percent change(APC)and the average annual percent change(AAPC).The seasonal incidence of different types of viral hepatitis was analyzed by seasonal index.The autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)was built to predict monthly incidence rate of viral hepatitis in 2020.Results The annual incidence rate of viral hepatitis was62.00/100000 in Nanjing from 1989 to 2019,showing a downward trend(AAPC=8.4%,P<0.05).From 1998 to 2019,the annual incidence rates of hepatitis A,B,C and E were 1.98/100000,14.31/100000,2.30/100000 and 2.60/100000.The incidence of hepatitis A and B showed downward trends(AAPC=-11.81%,-6.02%,both P<0.05);the incidence trend of hepatitis C was not obvious(P>0.05);the incidence of hepatitis E showed an increasing trend(AAPC=4.82%,P<0.05).From 2015 to 2019,the third and fourth quarters were the epidemic seasons of hepatitis A,B and C,while the first and second quarters were the epidemic seasons of hepatitis E.The ARIMA model predicted that the monthly incidence rates of viral hepatitis in 2020 would range from 1.26/100000 to 3.69/100000,among which hepatitis B ranged from 1.21/100000 to 2.58/100000,hepatitis C from 0.20/100000 to 0.48/100000,hepatitis E from 0.09/100000 to 0.25/100000.Conclusions The incidence of viral hepatitis in Nanjing shows a downward trend.Among different types of hepatitis,hepatitis B has a higher incidence.All types of hepatitis have epidemic seasons.It is predicted that the monthly incidence rates of viral hepatitis will be 1.26/100000 to 3.69/100000 in 2020.
作者
吴小清
许阳婷
苏晶晶
徐庆
王炜翔
WU Xiaoqing;XU Yangting;SU Jingjing;XU Qing;WANG Weixiang(Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention,Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210003,China)
出处
《预防医学》
2021年第3期236-240,245,共6页
CHINA PREVENTIVE MEDICINE JOURNAL
基金
南京市医学科技发展项目(YKK18177)。
