摘要
在基于BSADF方法动态测度粤港澳大湾区各城市房价泡沫的基础上,结合空间计量模型和高维动态R-Vine Copula模型揭示各房价泡沫的动态空间溢出效应和传染网络特征。研究结果表明:除了澳门和肇庆外,粤港澳大湾区其他9个城市均显著存在周期性住宅价格泡沫,但具有结构性差异;二线城市房价泡沫程度明显高于其他城市。整个大湾区内城市房价泡沫从一线(核心)城市向二、三、四线城市迁移;整个房价泡沫传染网络呈现地理聚集和经济聚集的相依结构特征。东莞在整个传染网络中扮演着中心枢纽的地位,起到承接和传导房价泡沫的中介作用;各城市住宅价格泡沫之间存在非对称的相依结构特征和正向空间溢出效应;城市房价泡沫程度与其空间溢出效应存在明显的正相关性。城市间经济一体化程度越高,其房价泡沫相依性就越大。
This paper makes an empirical research on housing price bubble and its evolution among 11 cites in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area based on backward sup ADF test method(BSADF).Then,a spatial econometric model and a high-dimensional dynamic R-Vine Copula model are constructed to reveal the dynamic spatial spillover effects and infecting network characteristics of each housing price bubble.The results of the study show that nine cities have significant cyclical housing price bubbles with the exception of Macao and Zhaoqing in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,but there are structural differences.The housing price bubble in second-tier cities is significantly higher than that in other cities.The urban housing price bubble migrated from the first-tier(core)cities to the second,third,and fourth-tier cities in the entire Greater Bay Area.The entire housing price bubble infecting network presents the structural characteristics of geographic and economic agglomeration.Dongguan plays a central hub position in the entire infecting network,playing an intermediary role in undertaking and conducting housing price bubbles.There are asymmetrical interdependent structural characteristics and positive spatial spillover effects among the housing price bubbles in various cities.There is an obvious positive correlation between the degree of urban housing price bubble and its spatial spillover effect.The higher the degree of economic integration between cities become,the greater the mutual dependence of the housing price bubble will enhance.
作者
郭文伟
GUO Wenwei(School of Finance,Guangdong University of Finance&Economics,Guangzhou 510320,China)
出处
《河南科技学院学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第5期1-10,共10页
Journal of Henan Institute of Science and Technology
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“房价泡沫空间溢出对区域金融风险的影响机制和防范研究”(19BJY244),主持人:郭文伟。
关键词
粤港澳大湾区
城市房价泡沫
空间溢出效应
传染网络
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao greater bay area
urban housing price bubble
spatial spillover effect
infecting network
