摘要
新亚欧大陆桥使得中国新疆区位优势得以体现,带动了新亚欧大陆桥沿线对外贸易发展,但新亚欧大陆桥走廊绩效及运输费用有深化研究空间。以新亚欧大陆桥对中国新疆与中亚国家对外贸易影响为研究对象,构建了基于经济条件、社会条件、交通条件的作用机制,认为走廊绩效及运输费用降低通过与经济条件和社会条件耦合促进中国对外贸易发展。接着在扩展引力模型基础上,考查人口因素、FDI等常规影响因素,选取走廊绩效中的运输费用替代原有的地理距离指标,增强中国新疆对外贸易影响因素的解释力度。实证结果表明:走廊绩效中的运输费用是阻碍新疆与中亚国家贸易的主要因素;中亚国家的经济规模、人口数量、FDI对贸易发展起促进作用;是否加入世界贸易组织对于贸易额的影响并不显著。运输走廊绩效对中国新疆与中亚国家贸易有显著相关性,改善运输走廊绩效可促进新疆对外贸易发展。在“一带一路”背景下,需从国际合作机制、中国对外投资、走廊绩效等方面加强中国对中亚国家的影响力。
The New Eurasian Land Bridge embodies the regional advantages of China's Xinjiang and promotes the development of foreign trade along the New Eurasian Land Bridge.However,there is room for further research on the corridor performance and transportation costs of the New Eurasian Land Bridge.This paper takes the influence of the New Eurasian Land bridge on the foreign trade of China's Xinjiang and Central Asian countries as the research object,constructs the action mechanism based on economic conditions,social conditions and traffic conditions,and believes that corridor performance and transportation cost reduction can promote the development of China's foreign trade through coupling with economic conditions and social conditions.Then,based on the expanded gravity model,the conventional influencing factors such as population factors and FDI were examined,and the transportation cost in corridor performance was selected to replace the original geographical distance index,so as to strengthen the interpretation of the influencing factors of Xinjiang's foreign trade.The empirical results show that the transportation cost in corridor performance is the main factor hindering the trade between Xinjiang and Central Asian countries.The economic scale,population and FDI of Central Asian countries promote the development of trade.Accession to the World Trade Organization has no significant impact on trade volume.The performance of transport corridor is significantly related to the trade between Xinjiang and Central Asian countries,and improving the performance of transport corridor can promote the development of Xinjiang's foreign trade.In the context of the Belt and Road initiative,it is necessary to strengthen China's influence on Central Asian countries in terms of international cooperation mechanisms,China's outbound investment and corridor performance.
作者
李红昌
徐鑫
崔金丽
LI Hongchang;XU Xin;CUI Jinli(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Professor and Mentor of Doctoral,Beijing 100044,China;Accenture(China)Co.,Ltd.,Financial Analyst,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《铁道经济研究》
2021年第2期1-7,14,共8页
Railway Economics Research
关键词
新亚欧大陆桥
国际贸易
扩展贸易引力模型
走廊绩效
运输费用
New Eurasian Land Bridge
international trade
extended trade gravity model
corridor performance
transportation costs
