摘要
为研究不确定交通环境下的通勤出行决策行为,考虑出行者的有限理性,基于累积前景理论构建了出发时刻、路径的联合决策模型。该模型包含3个参考点,即可接受的最早、最晚到达时间和行程时间,且风险偏好系数考虑了行程时间的可靠性及参考点的影响。基于所选取的参考点计算价值函数与权重函数,并依据前景值最大确定出行方案。算例研究结果表明:可靠度要求高的通勤人群偏向于在较晚的时间出发、选择风险较小的路径出行;可靠度要求低的通勤人群偏向于在较早的时间出发、选择行程时间较短的路径出行。本研究的成果可为动态路径诱导以及交通需求管理措施的效果评估提供一定的理论依据。
To study the decision-making behaviors of commuters in uncertain traffic environment,based on the cumulative prospect theory,a joint decision model with departure time and travel route was constructed considering the bounded rationality of traveler.The model includes three reference points as follows:the earliest,the latest acceptable arrival time and the travel time.At the same time,the impact of travel time reliability and reference points was considered for the risk preference coefficient.According to the selected reference points,the value function and decision weight function could be calculated by the model,and the travel plan could be determined through selecting the maximum prospect value.The results of the example show that commuters with high reliability requirements tend to depart later and select less risky routes to travel,while those with low reliability requirements tend to depart earlier and select the routes with shorter travel time to travel.To some extent,the research results can provide a theoretical basis for the dynamic route guidance and the effect evaluation of travel demand management strategies.
作者
王顺
杨欢
况爱武
姜宁宇
WANG Shun;YANG Huan;KUANG Ai-wu;JIANG Ning-yu(Changsha Construction Project Quality and Safety Supervision Station,Changsha 410016,China;Hunan Key Laboratory of Smart Roadway and CooperativeVehicle-Infrastructure Systems,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China)
出处
《长沙理工大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2021年第1期58-65,共8页
Journal of Changsha University of Science and Technology:Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51678075)
湖南省重点领域研发计划项目(2019SK2171)
湖南省交通科技项目(201920)。
关键词
累积前景理论
行程时间可靠性
风险偏好系数
联合决策模型
贝叶斯理论
cumulative prospect theory
travel time reliability
risk preference coefficient
joint decision model
Bayesian theory
