摘要
为揭示近60年来呼伦湖水面面积的变化规律,确定影响呼伦湖水面面积变化的主要因素,采用曼-肯德尔检验(Mann-Kendall tests)、一元线性回归和小波分析法解析1961—2018年呼伦湖水面面积及其所在区域气温、降水量、蒸发量和相对湿度的变化趋势、突变特征和周期性变化规律,采用皮尔逊相关性分析(Pearson correlation analysis)和灰色关联分析研究水面面积与气象要素的相关性.结果表明:1961—2018年呼伦湖水面面积在1739~2360 km^(2)之间,总体以72.84 km^(2)(10 a)的速率显著减小,2009年人工调水实施以后水面面积逐渐恢复并稳定在2030 km^(2)左右.近60年来呼伦湖区域气候暖干化明显,表现为气温显著升高、蒸发量显著增大、相对湿度显著降低、降水量非显著减少.1961—2018年,呼伦湖水面面积对气候突变及其周期波动存在相应的响应,水面面积与区域蒸发量呈显著负相关,Pearson相关系数为-0.546,与区域蒸发量和降水量的灰色关联度为0.938~0.960,人工调水实施前(1961—2008年)水面面积与气象要素的相关性强于1961—2018年.研究显示,气候变化引起的蒸发量增大是呼伦湖水面面积减小的重要原因,人工调水严重干扰了2009—2018年呼伦湖水面面积对气候变化的响应.
In order to reveal the variation characteristics of Hulun Lake area and identify its primary influencing factors in the past 60 years,the Hulun Lake area from 1961 to 2018 and the annual temperature,precipitation,evaporation and relative humidity of the surrounding area were analyzed using Mann-Kendall tests,linear regression and wavelet analysis.The correlation between the lake area and the meteorological elements was analyzed using Pearson correlation and grey relational analysis.The results showed that the Hulun Lake area(1739-2360 km^(2))decreased significantly during 1961-2018 at a rate of 72.84 km^(2)(10 a).Since the implementation of the water diversion project in 2009,it increased gradually and stabilized at 2030 km^(2) in recent several years.The climate of the Hulun Lake area tended to be warmer and drier in the past 60 years,which manifested that the temperature and evaporation increased significantly,the relative humidity decreased significantly,and the precipitation decreased insignificantly.The Hulun Lake area during 1961-2018 showed a corresponding response to the abrupt and periodic changes of the climate.Moreover,the lake area was negatively correlated with the evaporation with a Pearson correlation coefficient of-0.546,and the grey relational coefficients between the lake area and the evaporation and precipitation were as high as 0.938-0.960.The correlation between the lake area and the meteorological elements during the period before the implementation of the water diversion project(1961-2008)was stronger than that during 1961-2018.The increase in evaporation caused by the climate change is the main reason for the decrease in the Hulun Lake area.The water diversion project started in 2009 has a strong impact on the response of the Hulun Lake area to the climate change during 2009-2018.
作者
王鹏飞
郭云艳
周康
郑朔方
姜霞
王书航
WANG Pengfei;GUO Yunyan;ZHOU Kang;ZHENG Shuofang;JIANG Xia;WANG Shuhang(National Engineering Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control and Ecological Restoration,State Environment Protection Key Laboratory for Lake Pollution Control,Institute of Lake Ecological Environment,Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)
出处
《环境科学研究》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期792-800,共9页
Research of Environmental Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(No.41907335)。
