摘要
近年来,随着金融创新的发展,犯罪分子的洗钱手段日益隐蔽与复杂化,而金融开放导致了更加频繁自由的资本流动,洗钱与资本流动两者叠加对中国的金融体系安全带来了一定的潜在威胁。在此背景下研究洗钱与资本外逃对中国金融安全的影响,有助于完善反洗钱与跨境资本监管,降低洗钱风险与系统性金融风险的累积,保障金融体系的稳健运行。文章基于中国2004~2018年的宏观数据建立向量误差修正模型(VECM),实证分析了非法洗钱与资本外逃对中国金融安全的影响。研究结果显示,非法洗钱不但会对中国的金融安全造成直接的负面冲击,而且会通过资本外逃渠道对金融安全产生间接的不利影响。相应的政策建议是加强对非法跨境洗钱活动的识别与监测,循序渐进地推进金融开放,建立跨境资本流动监管体系,完善国内反洗钱监管机制,全方位、多层次地推进反洗钱工作。
In recent years,with the development of financial innovation,the money laundering methods of criminals have become increasingly complicated and hidden,and financial openness has led to more frequent and free capital flows.The combination of money laundering and capital flows has brought great potential threats to the security of China’s financial system.In this context,studying the impact of money laundering and capital flight on China’s financial security will help to improve anti-money laundering and cross-border capital supervision,reduce the accumulation of money laundering risk and systemic financial risk,and ensure the stable operation of financial system.This paper builds a vector error correction model(VECM)based on China’s macro data from 2004 to 2018 to capture the effect of illegal money laundering and capital flight on financial security.The results show that money laundering will not only have a direct negative impact on China’s financial security,but also have an indirect adverse impact on financial security through capital flight channels.The corresponding policy recommendations are to strengthen the identification and monitoring of illegal cross-border money laundering activities,to promote financial opening gradually and establish a cross-border capital flow management system,and to improve an all-dimension and multi-level pattern of domestic anti-money laundering work.
作者
马理
姜楠
李甲翔
Ma Li;Jiang Nan;Li Jiaxiang
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期67-79,M0003,共14页
World Economy Studies
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“经济新常态下中国金融开放与金融安全研究”(批准号:17JZD015)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“发达国家货币政策跨国传导的复杂溢出效应:基于开放经济条件下的DSGE多国模型与VAR数据检验”(批准号:72073042)
国家自然科学基金国际合作项目“法、金融与经济增长之再考察:中国的变革挑战与英国等国的经验”(批准号:71661137003)的资助。
