摘要
针对我国华北型煤田煤层开采过程中严峻的底板突水问题,考虑多因素影响煤层底板突水的发生,提出采用模糊德尔菲层次分析法(FDAHP)与逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)的基本理论建立煤层底板突水风险评价模型。以山东新汶煤田良庄井田与孙村井田11煤层底板奥灰突水危险性评价为例,选取断层强度指数、断层端点与尖灭点密度、含水层水压、含水层富水性、隔水层厚度、脆性岩比率、底板破坏深度等7个主控因素作为决策指标,对11煤层底板突水的危险性进行评价,利用FDAHP法科学分配权重向量,进而结合TOPSIS法分析研究区突水的最安全解和最危险解并计算突水风险系数,建立底板突水风险评价模型,利用开采实例验证模型的可靠性并确定分区阈值。研究结果表明:在井田的东北部突水风险系数较高,发生突水可能性较大;在井田的西南部突水风险系数较低,发生突水的可能性较小。基于FDAHP与TOPSIS的煤层底板突水风险评价结果与工程实践相吻合,预测效果较好。
Coal mining practices in the northern China coal field face severe water inrush problems.Taking the influence of many factors on the occurrence of floor water inrush into consideration,a water inrush risk index method based on the fuzzy Delphi analytic hierarchy process(FDAHP)and the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)was put forward to evaluate floor water inrush risks.A case study was carried out for the Ordovician limestone water inrush risk assessment of the No.11 coal seam floor of the Liangzhuang Coal Mine and Suncun Coal Mine in the Xinwen coal field,Shandong Province.Seven main control factors,including fault intensity index,density of fault endpoint and intersection,water pressure of aquifer,water abundance of aquifer,thickness of water-resisting layer,ratio of brittle rock,bottom damage depth,were selected as decision indexes for the water inrush risk assessment of the No.11 coal seam.The FDAHP method was used to distribute the weight vector.Based on the TOPSIS method,the safest and most dangerous solutions of the water inrush in the study area were analyzed and the water inrush risk index method was finally established.The reliability of the model was verified and the zoning threshold was determined.The results show that the water inrush risk index is higher in the northeast of the study area,indicating larger possibility of water inrush.The water inrush risk index in the southwest of the study area is lower,indicating smaller possibility of water inrush.The predictions of the water inrush risk index model based on the FDAHP and TOPSIS methods are consistent with engineering practice.
作者
王静雪
刘海松
邱梅
WANG Jingxue;LIU Haisong;QIU Mei(College of Earth Science and Engineering,Key Laboratory of Sedimentary Mineralization&Sedimentary Minerals in Shandong Provincial,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China;School of Earth Sciences and Resources,China University of Geoscience,Beijing 100083,China;Qingdao Geo-Engineering Surveying Institute(Qingdao Geological Exploration and Development Bureau),Key Laboratory of Urban Geology and Underground Space Resources,Shandong Provincial Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources,Qingdao 266071,China)
出处
《采矿与岩层控制工程学报》
北大核心
2021年第2期100-111,共12页
Journal of Mining and Strata Control Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51804184,41572244,41807283)
大学生创新创业训练计划资助项目。
