摘要
铁路枢纽客运需求是场站布局、线路运营组织、接驳设施设计的重要数据基础.通过空间出行特征分析,发现铁路枢纽客运需求不仅包含城市对外需求,还包括过境交通需求和城市内部需求.针对3类需求特点设计不同的预测方法:采用“总需求-线路需求-枢纽需求”全局统筹的思路,引入城市引力模型,预测城市对外需求和过境交通需求;采用四阶段模型,将城际线路通行能力折减后与城市轨道一起参与竞争分配,预测城市内部交通需求.该方法用于广州市铁路枢纽客运需求预测,发现规划远期城市对外交通需求仅占各枢纽总需求的65%.
The data of the railway hub’s passenger demand is an important foundation for railway station design,line organization,and transfer facility design.By analyzing the traffic spatial characteristics,this paper finds that the railway hub’s passenger demand includes not only the city s internal-external demand but also the external-external demand and internal-internal demand.Different methods were designed to forecast different types of demands.Following the“Rail demand-line demand-hub demand”guideline,the city s gravity model was introduced to predict the internal-external demand and external-external demand.The forecast of internal-internal demand involved the traditional four-stage model,and showed a reduction in intercity line capacities,and a certain level of competition between intercity lines and intracity lines.Finally,this method was used to forecast the passenger demand for Guangzhou railway Hub.The result showed that the city s internal-external traffic demand only accounted for 65%of the total demand in the future.
作者
刘新杰
刘明敏
丁晨滋
LIU Xinjie;LIU Mingmin;DING Chenzi(Guangzhou Transport Planning Research Institute,Guangzhou 510030,China)
出处
《交通工程》
2021年第2期85-90,96,共7页
Journal of Transportation Engineering
基金
广州市“岭南英杰工程”后备人才(马小毅)培养计划科研课题项目.
关键词
铁路运输
客运需求
空间结构
需求预测
城市引力模型
railway transportation
passenger demand
spatial structure
demand forecast
city s gravity model
