摘要
目的对我国医疗资源与服务需求发展进行科学、合理预测,根据“十二五”“十三五”发展经验,为我国“十四五”期间卫生规划的制订提供参考依据。方法根据2011-2019年我国医疗卫生资源与服务需求情况建立灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,用该模型对我国2020—2025年医疗卫生资源与服务需求进行预测。结果到2025年,我国的医疗机构量将达到1044881个,床位数1280万张,执业(助理)医师数5299269人,注册护士数7181235人,入院人数37771万人,基层医疗卫生机构诊疗人次数478049万人次,与“十二五”相比,我国医疗卫生资源与服务需求在“十三五”期间仍呈上升趋势,但增长速度却有所下降。结论通过Excel2019建立GM(1,1)预测模型,均实现C<0.35,P=1,拟合效果较好;我国在“十四五”期间应进一步完善社会保障制度,推动医疗卫生事业高质量发展,提高医疗卫生资源利用效率,推动优质资源下沉,优化分级诊疗制度体系,促进医疗卫生资源供给与服务需求良性发展。
Objective To make a scientific and reasonable forecast on the development of medical resources and service demand in China and to inform China's health planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan period(2021~2025)based on the experiences in the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan periods.Methods A gray GM(1,1)prediction model was established based on the demand for health care resources and services in China from 2011 to 2019,and the model was used to forecast the demand for health care resources and services in China from 2020 to 2025.Results By 2025,the volume of medical institutions in China will reach 1,044,881,the number of beds will be 12.8 million,the number of practicing(assistant)physicians will be 5,299,269,the number of registered nurses will be 7,181,235,the number of hospital admissions will be 377.71 million,and the number of consultations in primary medical and health institutions will be 478,049 million.Compared with the situations in the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plan periods,the demand for medical and health care resources and services in China is still on the rise during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,but the growth rate has decreased.Conclusions The GM(1,1)prediction model established by Excel 2019 achieved C<0.35 and P=1,showing good fitness.China should further improve its social security system,promote the high-quality development of medical and health care,improve the efficiency of medical and health systems,increase the availability and accessibility of high-quality resources in remote and rural areas,optimize the hierarchical medical system,and promote the balanced development of medical resources and supplies.
作者
刘欣
高凯
Liu Xin;Gao Kai(School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China)
出处
《中国医疗管理科学》
2021年第3期29-35,共7页
Chinese Journal Of Medical Management Sciences
基金
上海市哲学社会科学青年项目(2016EJB002)。
